Tag Archives: Risk

Research released by Arch Mortgage Insurance Company in its Winter 2015 Edition of Housing and Mortgage Market Review showed an increased risk of lowering home prices in oil-producing states. Midland, Texas ranked highest for risk of lowering home prices at 60 percent. States and cities were examined on the likelihood of home prices being lowered in the next two years, based on recent economic and housing market data.

According to the OCC survey, 92 percent of surveyed banks originated residential real estate loans in 2014, and a full 20 percent reported tightening their standards regarding who can attain these loans. Seventy percent reported no changes in their standards, leaving a comparatively slight 10 percent of institutions claiming they eased their standards for residential mortgages.

AEI's National Mortgage Risk Index measured 11.3 percent last month, little changed from July's index, the group said. As a stress test, the index measures the percentage of loans that would be at risk of turning sour in the event of an economic downturn. Though the index has come down in recent months, it remains nearly twice the acceptable level "conducive to a stable market," AEI said.

Now that so many of the once-popular home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) are coming due, many borrowers could be in for what TransUnion calls "payment shock." A new study by the credit reporting agency shows that nearly half of all HELOC balances at the end of 2013—totaling about $474 billion—were originated between 2005 and 2007. Many of these HELOCs had 10-year draw periods, which means that the bill will soon come for those borrowers.

According to the American Enterprise Institute's (AEI) latest National Mortgage Risk Index, the share of home purchase loans at risk of going sour in the event of an economic downturn fell nearly half a percentage point last month to 11.44 percent. According to the group, the risk value of loans securitized in Fannie and Freddie's portfolios fell slightly to 5.8 percent, while the risk index for FHA slipped to 23.6.

In the midst of hurricane season, CoreLogic released its storm surge analysis for the year, counting more than 6.5 million homes at risk of hurricane damage and a total of $1.5 trillion in total reconstruction costs for these homes. Importantly, CoreLogic noted a large portion of homes susceptible to flood damage are not located within Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood zones and therefore are not required to carry flood insurance.

As home prices continue to rise—albeit slower than last year—many commentators insist that fears of a new bubble in the making are overblown. However, a new survey released Tuesday suggests lenders aren't buying it. In a survey of U.S. and Canadian mortgage lenders, FICO found 56 percent of respondents directly involved in the industry are concerned that "an unsustainable real estate bubble is inflating."

AEI's National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI), released monthly through the institute's International Center on Housing Risk, registered 11.87 percent for May, down from April's revised reading. The institute considers any index value below 6 percent as "indicative of conditions conducive to a stable market." The index acts as a stress test, measuring the percentage of loans at risk of default in the event of another economic crisis.

As the U.S. economy continues to improve, the challenges facing the banking industry gradually shift from recovery to risk management in an effort to avoid the pitfalls that contributed to the financial crisis, the Office of the Comptroller of Currency (OCC) said in its Semiannual Risk Perspective for Spring 2014. OCC warned that banks' boards of directors and senior managers should monitor heightened exceptions to traditional underwriting standards.

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) may have made some missteps in evaluating the risk of a residential mortgage-backed security (RMBS) transaction that has now been postponed, Fitch Ratings says in a recent report. In a release issued Friday, Fitch says S&P relied on incomplete home value data for loans contained in the recently announced RMBS transaction to be issued by Bayview Asset Management.