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Author Archives: Mark Lieberman

Mark Lieberman is the former Senior Economist at Fox Business Network. He is now Managing Director and Senior Economist at Economics Analytics Research. He can be heard each Friday on The Morning Briefing on POTUS on Sirius-XM Radio 124.

Personal Income, Spending Jump in February

Personal income rose a solid $143.2 billion or 1.1% in February, dwarfing expectations and spending jumped $77.2 billion or 0.7%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported Friday. The data suggest the personal spending component of Gross Domestic Product remained strong in the first quarter.

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Initial Jobless Claims Make Surprise Jump

Unemployment

First-time claims for unemployment insurance jumped 16,000 to 357,000 for the week ending March 23, the strongest jump since mid-February, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Despite the unexpected bump, initial unemployment claims have fallen for seven of the first 12 weeks of the year, averaging just a shade over 350,000, the number most economists see as the tipping point between a strengthening and weakening jobs market.

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GDP Growth More Positive in Revised Report

Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday. The report, coming just three days before the end of the first quarter, was an improvement over the first two GDP reports that showed the economy contracted by 0.1 percent then improved by 0.1 percent. The main drag on the fourth quarter economy--as it had been in the previous two fourth-quarter reports--continued to be government spending.

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New Home Sales in Steepest Drop in Two Years

New home sales fell 4.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000 in February, the sharpest drop in two years, the Census Bureau and HUD reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a smaller drop to 425,000 from January's originally reported sales of 437,000. January sales were revised down to 431,000. The sharp drop in sales combined with a steep price increase suggests builders are facing some price pushback from buyers for new homes even as supplies of existing single-family homes remain at historic lows.

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February Case-Shiller Indices Post Strongest Gain Since 2006

Home prices posted their strongest yearly gain in almost seven years in January, according to the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-city Home Price Indices released Tuesday. Home prices rose year-over-year in all 20 of the cities in the Case-Shiller survey. Prices rose in nine cities in January over December while falling in eight. Prices were unchanged in the remaining three. December data were revised, showing prices rose month-over-month in 10 cities compared with nine in the original report. The report showed a steady improvement in prices in the West.

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Commentary: Headlines and Bottom Lines

One of the most interesting results of poring through economic data reports is that the details often tell a different story than the headline. Coverage of the recent report on housing permits and starts, for example, was dominated by the increases in both metrics, suggesting a revival of the housing sector, a response some analysts suggested is due to tight inventories of existing-single family homes on the market. However, a closer look revealed a more important phenomenon.

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FOMC Continues Interest Rate, Investment Policies

Fed

With an upbeat assessment of the economy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 Wednesday to leave interest rates unchanged and to continue its program of purchasing agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and longer-term Treasury securities to "maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative." Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who opposed a similar action in January, cast the lone dissenting vote.

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Starts, Permit Data Show Shift to Multifamily

Housing permits rose a sharp 4.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 946,000 in February, to the highest level since June 2008, while housing starts edged up 0.8 percent to 917,000, the Census Bureau and HUD reported jointly Tuesday. Most--almost 62 percent├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ôof the increase in permits came in applications to build multifamily units. While the comparisons are favorable, the June 2008 activity came in the midst of a steady decline in residential construction.

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Builder Confidence Slips to 5-Month Low as Prices Fall

Builder confidence slipped in March to 44, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported Monday. Economists had expected the Housing Market Index to improve to 47 from February's reading of 46. Tighter inventories had been expected to improve confidence, but builder attitudes have also been weighed down by prices of new single-family homes. With the March report, the total index remained below 50 for the 83rd straight month.

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Commentary: Budget Pains

It's been two weeks since the dreaded sequester took effect, and so far, the only casualty has been the White House tour. There actually have been some positives, with both parties presenting budgets. However, both the GOP budget and the Democratic plan have one major similarity: Each is dead on arrival and destined to at best be a one-house budget, which leaves the country back where it was. Setting a target for practical balance would bring us closer to reducing the deficit and with less pain.

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