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Author Archives: Mark Lieberman

Mark Lieberman is the former Senior Economist at Fox Business Network. He is now Managing Director and Senior Economist at Economics Analytics Research. He can be heard each Friday on The Morning Briefing on POTUS on Sirius-XM Radio 124.

Home Prices, Sales Experience Monthly Slump in September

The housing sector hit a speed bump in September as existing home sales dipped, the National Association of Realtors revealed Friday. The association reported existing home sales fell 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.75 million, the first decline in three months. The median price of an existing home dipped 0.5 percent or $1,000 from August to $183,900, but is up 11.3 percent ($18,600) from September 2011, the strongest year-over-year dollar increase since January 2006.

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First-Time Jobless Claims Soar in Steepest Increase Since 2009

Unemployment

First time claims for unemployment insurance shot up 46,000 to 388,000--the highest level since July--for the week ending October 13, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists expected initial claims to bounce back up to 365,000 after seasonal factors drove the number of claims down to the lowest level in 54 months. The weekly increase was the steepest since the end of January 2009, when claims soared 53,000 in one week. Since claims reports are usually revised upward the "final" claims total will likely end up as the highest since January.

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September Housing Permits, Starts at Four-Year Highs

Housing starts and permits jumped in September to their highest levels since July 2008, Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported jointly Wednesday. Housing starts jumped 15.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 872,000 while permits improved 11.6 percent to 894,000. Single family starts represented 69.2 percent of the total in September, matching their year-to-date share. Single family starts made up 71.5 percent of all starts for the same period in 2011.

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Stronger Traffic Boosts Builder Confidence

After jumping 11 points in three months, builder confidence inched up one point in October to 41, remaining at its highest level since June 2006, the National Association of Home Builders reported Tuesday, matching economist expectations. The October boost was due entirely to a surge in homebuyer traffic in October, as other elements of the index were flat from September. The traffic index├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┬Øwhich had been revised downward in September to 30, from an originally reported 31├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┬Øleapt to 35, its highest level since April 2006.

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Initial Unemployment Claims Fall to 54-Month Low

Unemployment

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell to 339,000├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┬Øthe lowest level since February 2008├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┬Øfor the week ended October 6, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The drop was far steeper than market expectations of 370,000 initial claims. In addition, the previous week's report of 367,000 initial claims was revised up to 369,000. The claims filings appeared to lend some credence to the report last week when the nation's unemployment rate had fallen to 7.8 percent, the lowest level since January 2009.

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Beige Book: Economy Expanded ‘Modestly’ in September

Fed

The nation's economy generally expanded modestly from mid-August until the end of September, the Federal Reserve said in its periodic Beige Book report issued Wednesday. The report, the last Beige Book to be issued prior to Election Day, painted a mixed regional picture, with a leveling off of economic activity in New York and a slowing in the pace of growth in Kansas City. Meanwhile, the remaining 10 federal reserve districts reported that "growth continued at a modest pace."

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Two Data Points Undermine “”Truther”” Claims

Debating continued two days after Barack Obama and Mitt Romney met in Denver, not between the candidates but over the monthly Employment Situation report showing the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8 percent, the first sub-8.0 percent unemployment rate since January 2009.

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Unemployment Slips Below 8% for First Time Since 2009

The nation's unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in September--the lowest level since January 2009--as the economy added a below-average 114,000 jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday. The 0.3 percentage point improvement in the unemployment rate is the largest since January 2011, when the unemployment rate dropped from 9.4 percent to 9.1 percent.

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First-Time Unemployment Claims Inch Up, Stop Short of Expectations

Unemployment

First-time claims for unemployment insurance edged up by 4,000 to 367,000 for the week ended September 29, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The previous week's report was revised upward to 363,000 first time claims from the originally reported 359,000. Although initial claims appear to have plateaued (occasional weather-related spikes notwithstanding) first time claims fell in only five weeks during the third quarter, with a wide range: As high as 388,000 in the week following the July 4 holiday week and 385,000 in each of the two weeks following Hurricane Isaac, but as low as 352,000 when the quarter began.

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How Does Benchmarking Affect Payroll Data?

When the September employment situation report is released Friday, one number will loom large: Not the number of new payroll jobs--expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg to be about 113,000├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ôand not the unemployment rate (expected to be 8.1 percent), but 386,000. That's the number of jobs added to the nation's payrolls not by employers, but by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its annual "benchmarking" of payroll data.

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