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Report: Weak Labor Market to Blame for Housing Weakness

Though employment numbers have been in recovery, in a recent blog post for the company, RealtyTrac senior staff writer Octavio Nuiry argues that there is more to unemployment than percentages, and that a hidden actor is depressing housing market growth. Specifically, what concerns Nuiry most is the huge number of people dropping out of the labor force.

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May Home Sales Fail to Match Rise in Inventory

A report published by Redfin's Research Center indicated that home inventory was up 9.1 percent in May. That number represents the highest number of new listings to come onto the market in the last four years. At the same time, the actual number of homes sold dropped 10 percent. The drop in actual sales surprised analysts, who had been predicting a flood of new home purchases once inventory was in greater supply.

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Purchase Apps Point to Drop in May New Home Sales

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported Friday that applications for new home purchases fell 8 percent from April to May, indicating a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 374,000 units. If the numbers play out that way, it will be the lowest pace of sales since July 2013. On an unadjusted basis, the association estimates there were 36,000 new home sales last month, a 14.3 percent decline from April.

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California Home Sales Sink in May

In May, sales throughout the state totaled an estimated 37,734 units, down 0.7 percent from April and 14.4 percent from May 2013, according to DataQuick. The figure includes both new and existing homes as well as condos. Compared to the long-term May average, last month's sales were down 18.3 percent. "California sales haven't been above average for any particular month in more than eight years," the company said in its latest report.

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Economists Shrink Building Forecasts in Survey

In a survey of economists, the Wall Street Journal found optimism for housing starts through the rest of the year has dropped, thanks to a slow first half. To begin the year, the consensus view among economists participating in the survey was that housing starts would jump 20 percent this year, rising to 1.11 million units from a total of 924,900 in 2013. Now, that prediction is down to 1.05 million.

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All-Cash Sales Slowly Waning; Florida Continues to Lead

For March, CoreLogic reports cash sales accounted for 38.7 percent of total home sales, down from 40.2 percent the prior month and 41 percent a year before. Due to the seasonal nature of the housing market, CoreLogic senior economist Molly Boesel said the year-over-year comparison provides a better picture of the decline in cash sales.

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Mortgage Rates Slightly Up Ahead of Fed Meeting

According to Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) was 4.20 percent (0.6 point) for the week ending June 12, an increase of 6 basis points from last week's report. Last year, the 30-year FRM hovered just below 4.0 percent. The increase followed last week's release of the May jobs report, which showed payrolls performing more or less as expected.

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Consumer Trust Fades in Wake of Online Security Breaches

In a poll released this month, Gallup reports only 21 percent of consumers put "a lot" of trust in the security efforts taken by companies they regularly do business with. A combined 30 percent have little to no trust at all. While consumers expressed the most trust for banks and credit card companies, that higher confidence could stem from the fact that these businesses are subject to increased regulatory scrutiny as the result of the 2008 financial crisis.

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Road to Recovery Expected to Lengthen

In a market update, Wells Fargo's Economics Group contends that the road to housing recovery will be longer—and much bumpier—than expected. The group said that the "lack of a rebound in home sales this spring has reinforced our view that there was more than harsh winter weather behind the recent slide in home sales and mortgage applications."

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NAR: New Construction Needs to Catch Up to Job Creation

Measuring new homebuilding against employment numbers—which only recently recovered from their recessionary decline—the National Association of Realtors finds that historically, there is one new home built for every 1.5 jobs added to the economy. As of the first quarter, 32 states and the District of Columbia are above that ratio, meaning job growth has far outpaced new construction over the past three years.

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