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National Recovery Measure Rises to 88%

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) delivered some good news Monday in that 59 of the 350 metro markets have returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity. In the NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), the national average is running at 88 percent, with 11 metros gained year-over-year.

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Americans’ Feelings Mixed on Present, Future of Housing

Fannie Mae released Monday its most recent National Housing Survey, revealing a slight softening in the housing recovery as monthly indicators remain volatile. “The housing recovery continues to proceed in fits and starts,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Rising mortgage rates and a lack of supply have dampened housing market momentum.”

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41% of Homes Unaffordable on Two Median Incomes

In the nation’s largest cities, a median income is not sufficient to purchase a median-priced home. In fact, even households with two median incomes cannot afford median-priced homes in the 40 largest cities in the United States, according to a Redfin survey released last week. Redfin’s findings concur with data from Zillow revealing median-income earners in Southern California cannot afford more than half of homes for sale in their market.

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Vacation Home Sales Pick Up; Investor Interest Wanes

Vacation home sales rose in 2013 as investment purchases retreated from levels observed in previous years, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun commented that as market conditions return to normal, investors must now evaluate their purchases more carefully—and judiciously.

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Economy Adds 192K Jobs in March; Unemployment Steady at 6.7%

The Department of Labor reported 192,000 new jobs in March, down slightly from February’s revised growth of 197,000 (from 175,000 originally reported). January’s employment growth was also revised, receiving a bump up to 144,000 from 129,000 reported last month. Despite last month’s apparent strength, the overall unemployment rate stubbornly stayed at 6.7 percent.

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One-Third of For-Sale Homes Considered ‘Unaffordable’

Recovery in the housing market is not without its side effects, particularly in major metro markets on the West Coast and in Florida. A look into 35 major markets by Zillow reveals that buyers making the median income in Southern California, the Bay Area, Portland (Oregon), Denver, and Miami face markets where more than half the available homes are beyond their price range—which could mean the beginning of a new housing bubble.

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Mortgage Fraud Risk on the Rise

Interthinx, a subsidiary of First American Financial Corporation, annually studies loan applications processed by its FraudGUARD system to determine the riskiest places in the country for mortgage fraud. What it found from its study of applications in 2013 was that fraud risk nationally rose by 4 index points to a total of 104. This continues the rising trend in fraud risk observed over the past three years as inventories shrink, prices rise, and markets stabilize.

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Mortgage Rates Little Changed in Light News Week

Freddie Mac released Thursday the results of its latest weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, showing the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) coming up to 4.41 percent (0.7 point) for the week ending April 3—a minor increase from 4.40 percent last week. “Mortgage rates were little changed amid a week of light economic reports,” said Frank Nothaft, VP and chief economist for Freddie Mac.

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Forecast Calls for Economic Thaw

However, according to an economic forecast report released Wednesday by UCLA Anderson, analysts expect the national GDP to growth by roughly 3 percent now that warmer and wetter spring weather is on the way. Moreover, as the GDP rises, increased housing and business investments and consumer spending should keep that growth rate steady through 2016.

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Is the All-Cash Trend Moderating?

ZipRealty released an analysis of its transactions from January 2012 through December 2013, concluding that nearly one of every four closed without financing. While still high, that share is an improvement from only a few years ago, says Lanny Baker, president and CEO of ZipRealty. “Nationwide, the percentage of all-cash real estate transactions reached a five-year high in 2010 at 27 percent,” Baker said.

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