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Data

Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Bumped Up to 2.6%

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the increase in real GDP last quarter mostly reflected positive contributions from consumer spending, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. Those gains were partly offset by drags in federal government spending and expenditures on housing. The latest growth estimate was an improvement over BEA’s second report, which suggested 2.4 percent annualized growth.

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Pending Home Sales Down to Lowest Level Since 2011

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported yet another monthly decline in its measure of pending home sales, indicating continued softness in future sales figures. According to the latest monthly report, the group’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—a metric based on contract signings—dipped 0.8 percent in February to a reading of 93.9, its lowest point since October 2011. It was the eighth decline in as many months.

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FHFA Price Index Up 0.5% in January

Following two other reports on home price changes in January, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its own House Price Index (HPI), pinning monthly growth at a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent. December’s index, meanwhile, was revised slightly downward to show a 0.7 percent increase. According to the agency, the most recent improvement marks the 23rd in the last 24 months.

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Housing Barometer: Recovery ‘Staggering’ Forward; Headwinds Persist

Recovery in the housing market is stumbling back to solid ground, thanks to a rise in home prices and existing home sales, as well as a drop in foreclosures, according to the latest Housing Barometer report released Wednesday by Trulia. However, growth in these sectors is dragging disproportionally weaker growth in young adult employment and stagnation in the new home construction sector in its wake.

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Consumer Confidence Rebounds to Six-Year High

According to a release Tuesday, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index improved to 82.3 in the latest survey, up four points from February’s reading. It was the strongest index value since January 2008. “Overall, consumers expect the economy to continue improving and believe it may even pick up a little steam in the months ahead,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators for the Conference Board.

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New Home Sales Retreat After January Surge

According to reports released Tuesday by the Census Bureau and HUD, new home sales in February ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000, down 3.3 percent from the revised January rate of 455,000 (originally recorded at 468,000). It was the weakest sales pace since September 2013. Compared to February 2013, last month’s sales rate was down by about 5,000 (1.1 percent).

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Price Growth Streak Continues in January

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, released Tuesday, showed a 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month improvement in January, topping the 0.7 percent gain forecast in a poll of economist conducted by Reuters. On an unadjusted basis, the 20-city composite index posted its third monthly decline at -0.1 percent. The 10-city index ticked up a negligible amount, meanwhile.

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Sun Continues to Shine on Florida’s Housing Market

Home prices are rising; inventory is stabilizing; and the number of properties listed for sale is increasing, according to the latest data from Florida Realtors. “The majority of results for the residential market paint a picture of a normal growing market,” said John Tuccillo, chief economist for the group.

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Mortgage Risk Down Slightly; Remains Nearly Double Sustainable Levels

The American Enterprise Institute's National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI), a measure of loans’ default risk under stressful conditions, retreated to 11.6 percent last month from January’s reading of 11.8 percent. To gauge where February’s index lies historically, 1990 vintage loans would have an estimated index value of 6 percent, while riskier 2007 loans would be up at 19 percent.

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