News

No matter how foggy the haze is, economists typically dust off their crystal balls in December. However economic forecasts too often involve driving by looking in a rear-view mirror. Because housing is a unique expenditure--combining elements of investment and a service--it depends on a variety of elements. The biggest question mark over the housing picture, though, is the fiscal cliff and the on-again, off-again negotiations to avoid a national financial calamity.

What does the commercial real estate sector have to look forward to in the coming year? Not much, if the fiscal cliff isn't averted, according to a study from commercial real estate (CRE) services provider Cassidy Turley. While dropping over the fiscal cliff would likely cause some serious problems for CRE, the firm also predicts a successful resolution of the problem could build on 2012's gains in GDP and employment, propelling the economy (and the office market) further forward.

Optimism among both real estate professionals and homeowners regarding home values is rising, according to a nationwide survey.

For the first time in nearly two long years, Freddie Mac's total mortgage portfolio grew in November, the company reported.

As Washington engages in a standoff over budgetary proposals to avert the fiscal cliff, several industry professionals and associations are calling upon lawmakers to avoid slaughtering what was once thought to be a sacred cow: the mortgage interest tax deduction (MID). While many housing professionals view the deduction as a break for homeowners and an incentive for others to purchase their own homes, critics call the MID a "subsidization of the real estate industry."

In Bethany, Missouri, AmeriBid LLC is preparing to preside over the bank-ordered sale of a very unusual property--a medium security prison. Recently announcing plans for a sealed-bid auction in 2013, AmeriBid's regional director Don Gabriel put a positive spin on the proceedings, noting that the 14.56-acre spread was "a great opportunity to own a multi-use property between Kansas City and Des Moines."

2012's upward trends in most housing indicators point to continued growth in the new year--but the road to recovery isn't clear yet, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says in its 2013 outlook. NAHB chief economist David Crowe notes the market is transitioning from a very low demand level to a case where supply may be a problem. As new homes are built to address supply concerns, the new stock is expected to take a much more active role in the recovery.

How much have housing sales recovered compared to 2008's levels? According to the most recent measures released by the "U.S. Treasury, 2012's sales fall somewhere in the middle between 2008's highs and 2011's lows. The latest monthly data on U.S. economic statistics shows new home sales reached an annualized average of 368,000 in October. While that statistic comes in above 2010's annualized monthly average of 321,000--and well above 2011's average of 307,000--it still falls short of previous years.

Even as the country barrels closer and closer to the fiscal cliff at the end of the year, Capital Economics is maintaining its projection for modest economic growth in 2013. In the firm's latest US Economics Update, economists Paul Ashworth and Paul Dale take a peek into what they believe is America's likely economic future: GDP growth of 2.0 percent in 2013 followed by 2.5 percent the following year. Of course, there are some major factors that could seriously stifle growth.

As the year draws to a close and many of us reflect on its events, make predictions, and set goals for the new year, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) is doing the same. In an interview included in SmartBrief's 2012 Best Of reports, SIFMA CEO Tim Ryan spoke of the regulatory progress and the lack thereof that has taken place in 2012 and his organization's concerns and expectations for the year ahead.