Home prices rose 3.7% annually in November 2019 and are expected to increase by 5.3% from November 2019 to November 2020, according to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index. [1]
CoreLogic reveals the HPI gain in November is a decline from the November 2018 gain of 4.8% but up slightly from September 2019’s gain of 3.3%. Annual home-price gains fell below 4% in February 2019.
The HPI has increased on a year-over-year basis monthly for more than seven years, since February 2012, and gained 62.9% since hitting bottom in March 2011. November’s overall HPI was 9.6% higher than its pre-crisis peak in April 2006.
Homes in the lowest-priced tier had the largest increase at 5.6%, followed by 4.8% for the low-to-middle price tier. Prices for homes in the middle-to-moderate price tier rose 4.2% and the high-priced tier reported an increase of 3.4%.
Idaho, once again, led the nation in HPI growth in November, wth home prices rising 10.2% over the past year. Connecticut was the only state that posted negative growth a -1% and are 17.1% below their pre-crisis peak.
CoreLogic says that home prices in 41 states, including the District of Columbia, are above their nominal pre-crisis peaks.
Also reporting increase—although minimally—is the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index [2], which rose 0.2 points to 91.7 and is nearing the survey high set in August 2019. Three of the six HPSI components increased in December, including the percentage of Americans who believe prices will go up over the next year—44% to 50%.
Annually, the HPSI is up 8.2 points, driven by consumers’ favorable mortgage rate expectations and a growing share of people believing now is a good time to buy.
“The continued strength in the HPSI attests to the intention among consumers to purchase homes. This is consistent with the Fannie Mae forecast for 2020,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist. “The HPSI hit and remained near an all-time high in 2019, driven by the 16-percentage point year-over-year increase in the share of consumers believing it is a good time to buy. The HPSI’s strength supports our prediction of a healthy housing market in 2020, as well as consumers’ appetite and ability to absorb the expected increase in entry-level inventory.”