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The Week Ahead: Gauging Q1 Housing Market Concerns

We will get a better gauge on Q1 home sales this week as CoreLogic issues its monthly Home Price Insights report on Tuesday, May 4 [1]. The report serves as an early indication of home price trends to close out the first quarter of 2021, as the winter storms that plagued the southwest in February left their impact on the market.

According to CoreLogic, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year-over-year by 10.4% in February 2021, and increased month-over-month by 1.2% in February 2021. The previous CoreLogic HPI Forecast also indicated that home prices would see an increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.6% from February 2021 to March 2021, and on a year-over-year basis by 3.2% in February 2021.

“Homebuyers are experiencing the most competitive housing market we’ve seen since the Great Recession,” said Frank Martell [2], President and CEO of CoreLogic. “Rising mortgage rates and severe supply constraints are pushing already-overheated home prices out of reach for some prospective buyers, especially in more expensive metro areas. As affordability challenges persist, we may see more potential homebuyers priced out of the market and a possible slowing of price growth on the horizon.”

Another factor to consider when evaluating March sales is the recent report from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) [3] on the price of lumber and homebuilding materials. With the price of lumber tripling over the past year, causing the price of a new single-family home to rise $35,872 on average.

We should know more on Tuesday when CoreLogic’s HPI is released [1].

Here's what else is happening in The Week Ahead: