Contract Volume, New Listing Volume Experiences Largest Off-Seasonal Decrease

HouseCanary, Inc. has released its latest Market Pulse report, covering 22 listing-derived metrics and comparing data between July 2021 and July 2022. The Market Pulse is an ongoing review of proprietary data and insights from HouseCanary’s nationwide platform.

“In July, economic uncertainty and another steep interest rate hike from the Fed appeared to have impacted both seller and buyer behavior," said Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary. "On one hand, elevated rates have contributed to a decrease in new net listing volume with would-be sellers sitting on high amounts of equity and locked-in low mortgage rates; on the other hand, demand has decreased also due in part to the sharp increase in interest rates, which had deterred potential buyers."

Key findings from this month’s Market Pulse report:

Total Net New Listings:

• Since July 2021, there have been 3,248,898 net new listings placed on the market, which is an 8.6% decrease versus the 52 weeks prior
• Percentage of total net new listings over the last 52 weeks, broken down by home price:
  • $0-$200k: 14.7%
  • $200k-$400k: 37.8%
  • $400k-$600k: 23.8%
  • $600k-$1mm: 15.8%
  • >$1mm: 7.9%
• Percent change in net new listing activity over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2021, broken down by home price:
  • $0-$200k: -25.2%
  • $200k-$400k: -14.7%
  • $400k-$600k: +12.1%
  • $600k-$1mm: +17.3%
  • >$1mm: +13.5%

Monthly Net New Listing Volume (Single-Family Detached Homes):

• Monthly new listing volume was down 9.0% compared to July 2021
• In July, there were 323,484 net new listings placed on the market, representing a 17.8% decrease year-over-year
• For the month of July, the percent change in net new listing volume compared to July 2021, broken down by home price:
  • $0-$200k: -32.3%
  • $200k-$400k: -24.2%
  • $400k-$600k: -7.0%
  • $600k-$1mm: -2.8%
  • >$1mm: -6.4%

Listings Under Contract:

• Over the last 52 weeks, 3,323,064 properties have gone into contract, representing an 8.6% decrease relative to the same period in 2021
• Percentage of total contract volume since July 2021, broken down by home price:
  • $0-$200k: 15.9%
  • $200k-$400k: 38.6%
  • $400k-$600k: 23.0%
  • $600k-$1mm: 15.0%
  • >$1mm: 7.5%
• Percent change in contract volume over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2021, broken down by home price:
  • $0-$200k: -22.5%
  • $200k-$400k: -16.3%
  • $400k-$600k: +5.8%
  • $600k-$1mm: +9.5%
  • >$1mm: +3.1%

Monthly Contract Volume (Single-Family Detached Homes):

• For the month of July, there were 319,962 listings that went under contract nationwide, which is a 13.7% decrease year-over-year
• For the month of July, the percent change in contract volume compared to July 2021, broken down by home price:
  • $0-$200k: -17.7%
  • $200k-$400k: -17.2%
  • $400k-$600k: -7.4%
  • $600k-$1mm: -6.9%
  • >$1mm: -16.1%

Median Listing Price Activity (Single-Family Detached Homes):

• For the week ending July 29, 2022, the median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. was $441,156, a 13.7% increase year-over-year
• For the week ending July 29, 2022, the median closed price of single-family listings in the U.S. was $414,147, an8.4% increase year-over-year
• The median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. is down by 1.4% month-over-month and the median price of closed listings has decreased by 2.1% month-over-month

"Consequently, these opposing forces have pushed price growth into negative territory, even though prices remain at a record high and the nationwide supply shortage we have experienced since 2020 persists," said Sicklick. "The current market environment is showing some initial signs of cooling and could potentially signal a normalization of supply and demand in the coming months. Looking forward, we are monitoring for any disruption of balance between low demand and low supply, particularly anything that could lead to a significant increase in supply with no reduction in rates that would set the market up for substantial price decreases.”

To read the full report, including charts and methodology, click here.