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Predicting the Next Recession

A survey by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) revealed that most of the surveyed economists believe a recession will begin by 2020 or 2021.

“Survey respondents indicate that the expansion will be extended by the shift in monetary policy, and most expect the next economic recession will occur later than anticipated when the February policy survey was conducted,” said NABE President and Chief Economist Constance Hunter. 

The survey states that of the 98% who believe a recession will come after 2019, the panel is split between whether it will arrive in 2020 or 2021. The August 2019 NAbE Economic Policy Survey is compiled with the responses of 226 members of the NABE. 

“Respondent attitudes towards current fiscal policy have shifted significantly as well,” Hunter said. 

The report states that 51% of respondents feel that fiscal policies are “too stimulative,” with 37% saying they are “about right.” Eight percent said current policies are too restrictive. 

“Similar shares of panelists believe that the primary objective of current fiscal policy should either be to stimulate more robust economic growth in the medium-to-long term (40%) or to reduce the deficit and debt (37%). Another 15% believe fiscal policy should be used primarily to address income inequality,” the report states. 

On possible ways to increase revenue, 55% of respondents said there should be a broadening of the individual or corporate tax base and 53% said to enact a broader-based energy or carbon tax. Thirty-two percent of respondents agreed that interest rates for both individuals and corporations should rise. 

The state of the economy and the threat of a possible recession has been at the forefront of economic across the nation. Stocks tumbled last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 800 points and the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields inverting for the first time since 2005.

Since then, though, the market has bounced back, and as of 6 p.m. CDT Monday the Dow increased by nearly 1%. The Nasdaq gained 106 points. 

About Author: Mike Albanese

A graduate of the University of Alabama, Mike Albanese has worked for news publications since 2011 in Texas and Colorado. He has built a portfolio of more than 1,000 articles, covering city government, police and crime, business, sports, and is experienced in crafting engaging features and enterprise pieces. He spent time as the sports editor for the "Pilot Point Post-Signal," and has covered the DFW Metroplex for several years. He has also assisted with sports coverage and editing duties with the "Dallas Morning News" and "Denton Record-Chronicle" over the past several years.
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