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Which States Could Best Weather a Recession?

Texas, according to Fit Small Business data, is the best state to survive a recession. What sets Texas apart is its lack of an income tax rate, as well as the second-lowest debt-to-income ratio in the nation at 1.16. Texas also has a low unemployment rate of just 3.4%.

Additionally, Texas also has an average home value of $198,100, one of the lowest in the country. Several Fit Small Business’s top states for recession survival are marked by low median home values, including Texas, followed by West Virginia, Nebraska, and Indiana, each with median home values lower than the national median.

West Virginia holds one of the lowest median home values in the country, at $98,300, $100,000 lower than the national average median home value in 2019. West Virginia has also proven to be recession-proof in the past, as its GDP grew by a modest 0.1% during the 2008 recession.

In Nebraska, the median home value is $168,600, still lower than the national median. Also, like West Virginia,Nebraska saw a 1.3% gain in GDP in the year following the last recession.

Across the country, housing remains a bright spot in economic growth, according to the latest commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. 

Risks to the ESR Group’s forecast remain biased to the downside, with trade tensions between the U.S. and China continuing to pose the greatest threat to growth, but housing is expected to be a source of strength in the near term. While the ESR Group had expected housing to contribute positively to third quarter GDP growth, stronger-than-expected recent data led the Group to revise substantially upward its projection for residential fixed investment. The Group’s updated forecast of 4.2% annualized is 3.3 percentage points higher than last month’s projection. According to Fannie Mae, this would represent the first time residential fixed investment has been positive since 2017.

About Author: Seth Welborn

Seth Welborn is a Harding University graduate with a degree in English and a minor in writing. He is a contributing writer for MReport. An East Texas Native, he has studied abroad in Athens, Greece and works part-time as a photographer.
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