A Wave of Housing Inventory to Soon Arrive

Zillow reveals that the number of homes to become available in the market by seniors aged 60 or older will rise from 920,000 from 2017 to 2027 and 1.7 million per year from 2027 to 2037—more than 27% of today’s owner-occupied homes becoming available by 2037. 

The Boomer generation once stood at 76 million and today, a third of America’s homes are owned by those 60-years-old and older. Nearly 20 million homes could become available in the next 20 years. 

The report states that retirement hubs like Florida and Arizona are expected to feel the most significant impact. 

“If demand erodes because fewer people choose to retire there in the coming years, those areas might end up with excess housing,” the report states.

Palm Springs, Florida, will see 45% of its owner-occupied homes vacated by 2037, compared to 23.8% of the combined Los Angeles-Riverside, California, metro area. 

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida, metro is expected to see the largest increase in available homes, growing by 15.2% in 2027 and 33.2% by 2037.

Tucson-Nogales, Arizona, is expected to see housing inventory grow by 14.8% by 2027 and 32.6% by 2037.

Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, Utah, is forecasted to see the least impact, with inventory growing by 8.3% in 2027 and 19.6% in 2037.

The Census Bureau reported earlier this month that single-family housing starts rose 2% in October to 936,000 and completions were 10.3% higher from September 1.13 million. 

“Construction activity reflected elevated home builder sentiment, which reached a 20-month high in October,” said realtor.com’s Senior Economist, George Ratiu. 

Building permits rose in October to 1.46 million, which is 5% higher than the September rate of 1.39 million and a 14% increase from the October 2018 rate of 1.28 million.

First American Financial Corporation Chief Economist Mark Fleming noted low mortgage rates, rising household income, and a surge of millennials had boosted the demand for housing. Fleming, though, said inventory would continue to be an issue. 

“However, we have underbuilt new housing relative to demand for years. Building will have to exceed household formation for a number of years to reduce the housing stock ‘debt’ we have accumulated,” Fleming said.