YoY Home Price Growth Slips to Two-Year Low

CoreLogic has released its Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for November 2022, as year-over-year home price growth ended its 21-month streak of double-digit momentum in November, posting an 8.6% gain, the lowest rate of appreciation in exactly two years.

And while 16 states nationwide bucked the national trend and saw annual double-digit increases, appreciation is decelerating in many popular housing markets across the country.

Regionally, Southeastern states still led the country for price growth in November, but also saw some of the most pronounced cooling. Similarly, relatively more expensive Western areas also posted substantial combined declines in recent months since spring’s peak.

“Although home price growth has been slowing rapidly and will continue to do so in 2023, strong gains in the first half of last year suggest that total 2022 appreciation was only slightly lower than that recorded in 2021,” said Selma Hepp, Executive, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic. “However, 2023 will present its own challenges, as consumers remain wary of both the housing market and the overall economic outlook.”

Nationwide, the recent price deceleration pushed November home values 2.5% below the spring 2022 peak. In 2023, home values will likely move even further from that high point, as CoreLogic expects price growth to begin recording negative year-over-year readings in the second quarter.

“And while the recent decline in mortgage rates may bode well for the housing market,” Hepp added. “Potential homebuyers are grappling with the idea of buying amid possible further price declines and a continued inventory shortage. Nevertheless, with slowly improving affordability and a more optimistic economic outlook than previously believed, the housing market could show resilience in 2023.”

In November, annual appreciation of attached properties (8.8%) was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of detached properties (8.5%).

By metro region, Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 20 largest areas in November, at 21.3%, while Tampa, Florida retained the number two spot at 17.3%. Florida and South Carolina recorded the highest annual home price gains, 18% and 13.9%, respectively. Georgia posted the third-highest growth, with a 13.6% year-over-year increase. Washington, D.C. ranked last for appreciation at 1.2%.