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November Brings Chill to Home Price Growth

frozen-creditHome prices grew at a slower pace in November than in October, spurring predictions of further deceleration heading into 2015.

In its November Home Price Index (HPI) report, property data firm CoreLogic recorded a 0.1 percent month-over-month increase in U.S. home prices for November. The minor gain, which includes data from distressed home sales, follows a 0.5 percent increase originally reported for October.

Compared to last year, home prices in November were up 5.5 percent compared to 6.1 percent in October. While home prices have now continually risen on a year-over-year basis for 33 straight months, the last year has seen growth fall off to a more normalized pace.

"After decelerating for most of the year, home price growth has been holding firm between a 5-percent and 6-percent growth rate for the last four months," said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist for CoreLogic, adding that "pockets of weakness are clear in Baltimore and Washington D.C."

On top of that, Khater noted that three of the top four states for price appreciation—Texas, Colorado, and North Carolina—have benefited largely thanks to an energy boom, which is expected to scale down as oil prices trend downward. All three states are among the list of states in which home prices have surpassed their previous peaks. Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wyoming round out that list.

As of November, 29 states were at or within 10 percent of their respective price peaks.

Removing distressed sales from the data, CoreLogic reports that home prices increased 5.3 percent nationally in November compared to the year prior and 0.3 percent compared to the previous month.

Looking forward, the company's HPI Forecast suggests home prices (including distressed sales) will experience a small setback in December, slipping 0.1 percent month-over-month. By November 2015, annual growth is projected to fall to 4.6 percent.

"The pace of home price gains have slowed as we exit 2014 but this is probably only a temporary lull," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "While the CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows a slight dip in prices next month, we believe that prices will be up a year from now as continued economic growth fuels buyer confidence and their willingness to purchase a home and invest in their future."

About Author: Tory Barringer

Tory Barringer began his journalism career in early 2011, working as a writer for the University of Texas at Arlington's student newspaper before joining the DS News team in 2012. In addition to contributing to DSNews.com, he is also the online editor for DS News' sister publication, MReport, which focuses on mortgage banking news.
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