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March Price Gains Beat Forecasts Despite Slowdown

house-sittingon-moneyHome prices continued to ascend through the end of the first quarter, though increases slowed down to match other weak indicators.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, released Tuesday, recorded a seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent monthly rise in prices across 20 of the country's top markets. Removing adjustments, the index climbed 0.9 percent month-over-month.

A consensus forecast from economists surveyed by Econoday called for an adjusted monthly increase of 0.7 percent.

Compared to a year ago, March prices were up 12.4 percent, a step back from the 12.9 percent annual increase recorded in February.

"The year-over-year changes suggest that prices are rising more slowly," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Annual price increases for the two Composites have slowed in the last four months and 13 cities saw annual price changes moderate in March."

Despite decelerating price growth, all cities in the composite index posted higher prices than a year ago, and four locations—Boston, Charlotte, Portland, and San Francisco—are now within 15 percent of their previous peaks. Denver and Dallas, which recovered to their perspective peaks months ago, continue to push up, meanwhile.

The latest index release also included quarterly data, showing prices rising 0.2 percent quarter-to-quarter in Q1. Compared to last year, prices were up 10.3 percent.

Looking at other market indicators, Blitzer says the picture "remain[s] mixed."

"April housing starts recovered the drop in March but virtually all the gain was in apartment construction, not single family homes," he said. "New home sales also rebounded from recent weakness but remain soft."

At the same time, he added, "Other comments include arguments that student loan debt is preventing many potential first time buyers from entering the housing market."

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