CoreLogic [1] has released the CoreLogic Home Price Index [2] (HPI) and HPI Forecast for April 2023, revealing single-family home price growth rose nationwide by 2% year-over-year in April. This marked the 135th consecutive month of annual growth but the sixth straight month of single-digit gains, which have slowed from an all-time high of nearly 20% annual appreciation in the spring of 2022.
Numerous economic concerns are contributing to homebuyer reluctance, including mortgage rate volatility and the related uncertainty surrounding the recent debt-ceiling debate. A continued shortage of homes for sale could keep pressure on housing prices over the next year. CoreLogic projects that home price growth will slow slightly in 2023 before regaining steam to about 5% annual appreciation by April 2024.
Key Findings:
- U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 2% year over year in April 2023 compared with April 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.2% compared with March 2023.
- In April, the annual appreciation of attached properties (3.6%) was 2.1 percentage points higher than that of detached properties (1.5%).
- CoreLogic forecasts show annual U.S. home price gains increasing to 4.6% by April 2024.
- Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country's 20 tracked metro areas in April, at 13.2%, while Atlanta ranked second at 4.8%.
- Among states, Indiana and New Jersey recorded the highest annual home price gains, 7.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Missouri, South Carolina and Vermont posted the third-highest growth rates, with all showing a 6.9% year-over-year increase. Ten states recorded annual losses: Washington (-7.7%), Idaho (-5.9%), Utah (-4.9%), Nevada (-4.5%), California (-3.6%), Arizona (-2.6%), Oregon (-2.6%), Colorado (-2.1%), Montana (-1.1%) and New York (-1.1%).
“While mortgage rate volatility continues to cause buyer hesitation, the lack of for-sale homes is putting firm pressure on prices this spring, leading to above-average seasonal monthly gains and a rebound in home prices in most markets,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp. ”Nevertheless, the recent surge in mortgage rates and continued inflation issues suggest that rates may remain elevated, leading home price appreciation to possibly relax this summer and return to average seasonal gains later in 2023.”
Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, is at a very high risk (70%+ probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Provo-Orem, UT; North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL; Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL; and Port St. Lucie, FL; are also at very high risk for price declines.
“Still, while slim inventory is pushing prices up once again and constraining affordability,” said Hepp, “recent trends suggest that home price growth in 2023 will fall in line with the historical 4% annual average.“
The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring May 2023 data, will be issued on July 11, 2023, at 8 a.m. EST.
To read the full report, including more data, charts and methodology, click here [3].