Lock-In Effect Keeping Home Prices Elevated

It’s no secret that the price of nearly everything has increased as of late due to inflation, interest rates, or both—this includes homebuyer’s monthly payments which hit $2,605 per month by the end of July, up 19% by down a meager $32 from July 2022. 

According to Redfin, housing payments remain historically high due to elevated mortgage rates, as weekly mortgage rates stood at 6.9% while the median home-price sale is up 3.2% year-over-year, the biggest increase since last November. 

Yet, home prices are increasing due to the mismatch between supply and demand, as inventory remains low due to the lock-in effect. The total number of homes for sale is down 19%, the biggest drop in a year and a half, and new listings are down 21%. 

Other leading indicators of homebuying activity, as highlighted by Redfin includes: 

• For the week ending August 3, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.9%, slightly higher than a week earlier but slightly lower than the half-year high hit three weeks earlier. The daily average was 7.2% on August 3. 
• Mortgage-purchase applications during the week ending July 28 declined 3% from a week earlier, seasonally adjusted. Purchase applications were down 26% from a year earlier. 
• The seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index was down 4% from a month earlier, and down 4% from a year earlier. 
• Google searches for “homes for sale” were up essentially flat from a month earlier during the week ending July 29, and down about 16% from a year earlier. 
• Touring activity as of July 28 was up 8% from the start of the year, compared with a 5% decrease at the same time last year, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime. 
• The median home sale price was $380,250, up 3.2% from a year earlier. That’s the biggest increase since November. 
• Sale prices increased most in Miami (12.7% YoY), Cincinnati (9%), Milwaukee (8.6%), Anaheim, California (8.5%) and West Palm Beach, Florida (8.4%). 
• Home-sale prices declined in 19 metros, with the biggest drops in Austin, Texas (-9.9% YoY), Phoenix (-4.2%), Detroit (-3.9%), Las Vegas (-3.5%) and Fort Worth, Texas (-3.2%). 
• The median asking price of newly listed homes was $387,223, up 1.7% from a year earlier. 
• The monthly mortgage payment on the median-asking-price home was $2,605 at a 6.9% mortgage rate, the average for the week ending August 3. That’s down about 1% ($32) from the record high hit three weeks earlier, but up 19% from a year earlier. 
• Pending home sales were down 14.4% year over year, continuing a year-plus streak of double-digit declines. 
• Pending home sales fell in all but two of the metros Redfin analyzed. They declined most in Providence, Rhode Islands (-29.5% YoY), Newark, New Jersey (-28.8%), Warren, Michigan (-26.4%), Boston (-26.3%) and Cincinnati (-25.1%). They increased 3.5% in Las Vegas and were flat in Austin. 
• New listings of homes for sale fell 21.3% year over year. That’s a substantial decline, but the smallest in three months. 
• New listings declined in all metros Redfin analyzed. They fell most in Las Vegas (-43.4% YoY), Phoenix (-39.7%), Providence, Rhode Island (-32%), Sacramento, California (-31.9%) and Oakland, California (-30.7%). 
• Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) dropped 19% from a year earlier, the biggest drop since February 2022. Active listings were down slightly from a month earlier; typically, they post month-over-month increases at this time of year. 
• Months of supply—a measure of the balance between supply and demand, calculated by the number of months it would take for the current inventory to sell at the current sales pace—was 2.9 months, the highest level since April. Four to five months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. 
• 43.7% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, up from 42% a year earlier. 
• Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 27 days, up from 23 days a year earlier. 
• 35.9% of homes sold above their final list price, down from 43% a year earlier. 
• On average, 5.8% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, down from 6.3% a year earlier. 
• The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their final asking prices, was 100%. That’s down from 100.7% a year earlier.