Home >> Daily Dose >> Home Price Expectations Down Slightly
Print This Post Print This Post

Home Price Expectations Down Slightly

mixed-numbersConsumers' home price predictions for the year ahead slipped slightly further in July, with opinions divided along regional lines, a survey shows.

Over the next 12 months, Americans expect median home prices to rise 3.87 percent, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That figure is down slightly from the New York Fed's June survey, marking the second consecutive month of declining price change expectations.

The decline is in line with Fannie Mae's most recent National Housing Survey, which showed a decline in expected price growth to a consensus 2.3 percent.

Hopes rose most for the Northeast, where the expected median price change jumped from 3.61 percent over the next year to 4.44 percent. Forecasts also picked up slightly for the South, climbing from 3.78 percent in June to 3.84 percent in July.

The next 12 months are expected to be less bright for the West and Midwest, where median price change expectations dropped to 4.85 percent (from 5.34 percent) and 3.09 percent (from 3.30 percent), respectively.

The outlook was similarly mixed for the labor market. While the New York Fed reported a new high in the expected probability of finding a new job within three months (52.6 percent), expected earnings growth was down to 2.2 percent, primarily due to declining optimism among respondents over the age of 60 and respondents with higher incomes.

In brighter news, more consumers are feeling secure in their jobs, with the average perceived probability of losing one's job in the next year falling to 14.7 percent.

Finally, credit and debt expectations improved. According to the New York Fed, the share of consumers who expect credit to be "somewhat" or "much" easier to get a year from now declined slightly in July to a combined 18.03 percent. However, the share of consumers expecting credit to be harder to get experienced a steeper decline, decreasing nearly 3 percentage points to 38.3 percent.

Most consumers—43.64 percent—still expect credit access to be about the same.

Meanwhile, the mean expected probability of not being able to make a minimum debt payment fell, improving for the fourth straight month to a new low of 12.7 percent. The New York Fed said the improvement is "largely attributable to respondents with lower education, income and numeracy."

About Author: Tory Barringer

Tory Barringer began his journalism career in early 2011, working as a writer for the University of Texas at Arlington's student newspaper before joining the DS News team in 2012. In addition to contributing to DSNews.com, he is also the online editor for DS News' sister publication, MReport, which focuses on mortgage banking news.
x

Check Also

Survey: Homeownership Remains Elusive for Baby Boomer Renters

A recent look into housing affordability by NeighborWorks America has found that three in five long-term baby boomer renters feel homeownership remains unattainable.