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County-Level Data: Not All Are Safe From Price Declines

According to ATTOM Data’s newest Special Housing Impact Report, which spotlights county-level housing market conditions and the possibility of declines based on affordability and foreclosure data, found that New Jersey and Ilinois had the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country. 

In addition, the report found that counties in the South, along with certain parts of the Northeast, have a stronger market and are less exposed to market fluctuations. 

ATTOM said-these second-quarter patterns—derived from gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment—revealed that New Jersey and Illinois had 23 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to potential drop-offs. Those concentrations dwarfed other parts of the country amid a time of significant uncertainty when the U.S. housing market was rebounding from a period of flat or falling values. 

The 50 counties at the top of the most vulnerable list included eight in and around New York City, six in the Chicago metropolitan area and three in or near Philadelphia. Another six were scattered through northern, central and southern California. A majority of the rest were in Indiana and along the East Coast. At the other end of the risk spectrum, the South and two New England states had the highest concentration of markets considered least likely to decline. 

At least 5% of residential mortgages were underwater in the second quarter of 2023 in 37 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.5% of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. More than one in 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action during the second quarter of 2023 in none of the 51 least at-risk counties. 

“We continue to see pockets of the U.S. housing market where the foundation is a bit shakier—or more solid—than others, based on important quarterly metrics,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “As with earlier reports, it doesn’t mean any one area or cluster of areas is about to crash. The overall market and the economy remain way too strong for imminent warnings to be sounded. But there are weak spots that are still popping up as areas to watch, especially if the market turns back downward.” 

Click here to view the report in its entirety. 

About Author: Kyle G. Horst

Kyle Horst
Kyle G. Horst is a reporter for DS News and MReport. A graduate of the University of Texas at Tyler, he has worked for a number of daily, weekly, and monthly publications in South Dakota and Texas. With more than 10 years of experience in community journalism, he has won a number of state, national, and international awards for his writing and photography. He most recently worked as editor of Community Impact Newspaper covering a number of Dallas-Ft. Worth communities on a hyperlocal level. Contact Kyle G. at [email protected].

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