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First-Time Jobless Claims Dip, Remain Elevated

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell 3,000 to 382,000 for the week ended September 15, the ""Labor Department"":http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm reported Thursday, topping market expectations.

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The previous week's report was revised upward to 385,000 first-time claims from the originally reported 382,000 which, the department said, included 9,000 claims attributable to hurricane Isaac.

Economists had predicted a smaller about 373,000 first-time claims.

Continuing claims ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô reported on a one-week lag ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô dropped 32,000 to 3,272,000 from the prior week's 3,304,000, revised from the originally reported 3,283,000.

The report covered the same week used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the Employment Situation report for September to be released October 5.

The report ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô tracking the nation's unemployment rate and job creation ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô is compiled based on payroll and household surveys for the week of the month including the 12th calendar day.

That unemployment claims remained elevated suggests another weak employment report for both jobs and the unemployment rate.

The weather factor affecting the prior week's report was detailed by the department with Louisiana attributing an increase of 6,678 first-time claims for the week ended September 8 to the storm.

The weekly detail was also affected by the September 3 Labor Day holiday. Though claims could still be filed electronically, staff was not available to process them. Typically claims in the week following a holiday increase as clerical staff clears a backlog of unprocessed claims.

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Initial claim filings had dipped as low as 352,000 for the week ended July 7 ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô also a holiday-shortened week ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô but have risen steadily since, averaging 373,000.

The upward adjustment to the prior week's report was the 33rd time this year the preliminary data was revised higher.

The four-week moving average of first time claims increased 2,000 to 377,500 - the highest level since the end of June - the fifth consecutive weekly increase. The last time the four week moving average rose for five straight weeks was a year ago.

The four week moving average of continuing claims fell 12,000 to 3,309,750 from 3,321,750.

Continuing claims generally reflect the ability of the long-term unemployed to find work but could also be affected by legislative action to reduce the duration of unemployment benefits at state levels. Many states have reduced benefit periods for budgetary reasons.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô reported on two week lag - for the week ending September 1 was 5,173,597, down 217,823 from the previous week.

Most of the decline came in two categories: regular state benefits which dropped 154,041 and emergency claims which fell 60,539. Congress imposed new restrictions on emergency claims as part of the legislative agreement to reduce payroll taxes.

States have been borrowing from the federal government to cover shortfalls in those funds which will eventually have to be repaid ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô unless Congress intervenes ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô with higher assessments on employers.

Since those assessments are a percentage of payrolls, they discourage employers from adding new workers. As of September 18, 20 states have and aggregate $25.9 billion in outstanding loans to cover shortfalls, led by California which has borrowed almost $9.7 billion.

States reported 2,162,532 persons claiming Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits for the week ending September 1, a decrease of 60,539 from the prior week, the Labor Department said. There were 2,997,259 persons claiming EUC in the comparable week in 2011.

According to the Labor Department detail, also reported on a one-week lag the largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 8 were in Louisiana (+6,678), Puerto Rico (+1,679), Mississippi (+1,067), Wisconsin (+988), and Washington (+833), while the largest decreases were in California (-8,163), New York (-3,449), Michigan (-2,115), Pennsylvania (-1,624), and Iowa (-1,214).

About Author: Mark Lieberman

Mark Lieberman is the former Senior Economist at Fox Business Network. He is now Managing Director and Senior Economist at Economics Analytics Research. He can be heard each Friday on The Morning Briefing on POTUS on Sirius-XM Radio 124.
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