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National home prices will rise 4.8 percent over the next year, according to a third-quarter forecast from ""Veros Real Estate Solutions"":http://www.veros.com/, a risk management, valuation services, and analytics firm based in Santa Ana, California.
[IMAGE]The third quarter was the fifth consecutive quarter Veros predicted rising prices in the nation's top 100 metro markets.
Only 5 of the 100 are expected to experience home price depreciation over the next year--and Veros predicts meager depreciation at that.
Looking beyond the next 12 months, Veros predicts a continuation of rising prices but says price gains will slow in pace.
""Although appreciation is still expected for months 13 to 24 in the forecast, it is not as strong as in months 1 to 12,"" said Eric Fox, VP of statistical and economic modeling at Veros.
""However, we don't foresee drastic slowing--simply some moderation,"" he added.
Rising interest rates and ""somewhat lower affordability"" will be key contributors to the deceleration, according to Fox.
[COLUMN_BREAK]Regionally, Veros predicts continued strengthening in the West and a lag in the Northeast and parts of the South.
The top 10 markets labeled by Veros' forecast are all located in Western states: Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington.
Notably, four of the top five markets are in California--all with double-digit price gains expected over the next 12 months.
The San Francisco metro leads the pack with a 15 percent forecasted gain, followed by San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos (10.8 percent), San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara (10.6 percent), Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana (10.5 percent).
The lone non-California metro to make it in the top five is Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Arizona, with a 10.4 percent anticipated gain. The Phoenix metro ""led the recovery and was the first to reestablish double-digit appreciation after the housing crash,"" according to Veros.
Tight inventory, strong demand, and low unemployment continue to keep this market performing well, according to Veros.
""Housing supply is a key discriminator between our top and bottom forecast performing markets,"" Fox said.
Another key contributor of late is population, according to Fox. ""Many of the markets in the Bottom 5 are in very slow growth areas,"" he said.
Of the top 100 markets observed, the market expected to fare the worst over the next 12 months is Gulfport-Biloxi, Mississippi, with a 2.7 percent price decline.
The list of the bottom five markets is rounded out by Norwich-New London, Connecticut (-1.9 percent); Rockford, Illinois (-1.1 percent); Huntsville, Alabama (-0.9 percent); McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas (-0.9 percent).
