Conditions are Dampening Homebuyer Confidence

Fewer homebuyers in September felt good about buying, for the second straight month. In August, buyer confidence took a drop from its peak (which was in July), and last month it fell again, according to the September Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index report, or HPSI.

The index found that buyer confidence dropped 2.2 points to 82.8 in September. July’s peak was 86.5. This slip, said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, has dampened what had been a moderately optimistic outlook on the housing market.

“Downside changes came in particular from the HPSI components mortgage rate direction and good time to buy a house,” Duncan said. “In addition, the starter home tight supply and rising home prices as well as the unsettled political environment are likely giving many consumers a reason to pause or question their home purchase sentiment.”

The largest factor to decrease in buyer sentiment was the net share of consumers who expect mortgage interest rates to go down over the next 12 months, which fell 6 percent, Fannie reported. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) has fallen by approximately 35 basis points in the last year. This week’s average 30-year FRM was at 3.42 percent, only 11 basis points higher than the all-time low, according to Freddie Mac.

This decline in consumers who expect mortgage rates to go down was followed by a 5 percent drop in the net share of consumers who say now is a good time to buy a home. This brings the overall percentage down to 29, which is where it was in May and matches the lowest point on the survey timeline. There also was a 3 percent drop in the net share of consumers reporting confidence about not losing their job over the next year.

Household Income was the only component to increase in September. About 2 percent of survey responders said their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago. Similarly, the number of Americans who say they are not concerned with losing their job fell 3 percentage points to 70 percent.

Even those who want to buy houses are having trouble buying, according to a report from Trulia. According to Trulia, 10.4 percent of would-be buyers who searched at a certain price point failed to match the available inventory to that price point. A year ago, only 8.3 percent of would-be buyers encountered a similar mismatch.

“These sorts of mismatches in the market can drive up prices in certain popular price ranges or cause properties to sit on the market longer than they otherwise would,” said Felipe Chacón, housing data analyst for Trulia's Housing Economics Research Team. “[M]any metros are tight on starter homes at the moment and heavy on higher-end homes. This puts upward pressure on starter home prices, especially in metros where people seem most interested in lower price ranges.”