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MBA Speaker Portrays Changing Demographics in Homeownership

Minorities and seniors are growing their share of the national population more than ever, ""William H. Frey"":http://www.brookings.edu/experts/freyw.aspx, senior fellow with the ""Brookings Institute"":http://www.brookings.edu/, told attendees at the ""Mortgage Bankers Association's"":http://www.mbaa.org/default.htm annual convention and expo Chicago Wednesday.

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There is also a continuing population shift out of the ""heartland"" states to what Frey classifies as the ""new sunbelt,"" states in the Mountain Time Zone and states along the Atlantic Coast, but excluding Florida and including North Carolina.

There were net population gains in all states, with the exception of Michigan, he said. But most of the gains were from immigrants or from people under age 30 moving into the states.

The migration of Generation X and older workers largely stopped near the end of the decade, Frey added. Workers without a college diploma don't have the transferable skills that employers seek.
Minorities have a higher propensity to rent than white citizens, he added.

His remarks follow recent reports showing a return to rental properties at faster rates by more Americans nationally, with a ""Fannie Mae"":http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/index.html ""outlook"":https://themreport.com/articles/fannie-consumer-outlook-for-prices-sees-new-lows-2011-10-10 from ""Doug Duncan"":http://www.isurvived2011.com/on-the-panel/doug-duncan, the GSE's chief economist, holding that 32 percent of survey respondents would rent rather than buy their next homes.

The numbers arrive despite a recent ""Trulia"":http://www.trulia.com/ survey finding ""home affordability outpacing rental costs"":https://themreport.com/articles/trulia-home-affordability-outpaces-rental-costs-2011-08-16 in 74 percent of the nation's metropolitan areas.

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The first Baby Boomers turned 65 last January, marking the first of 20 years of a swelling senior population. Like population as a whole, the most impacted states will be those in the ""new sunbelt,"" along with Texas and Florida, according to Frey.

For the most part these states are not seeing a large influx of seniors, but rather ""aging in place"" of people who moved there years earlier who will be entering their ""Golden Years.""

Most of the movement among homeowners in the last couple of years has been local rather than to other parts of the country, Frey said.

States like Colorado, Utah, and Nevada will need to meet this demographic shift by providing more housing that caters to the needs of seniors, Frey said. By contrast, Texas is the fastest growing state for children, mainly from a strong influx of immigrants. The shifting population in terms of age differences will determine voting trends in those states for issues like services for seniors and for younger generations.

States south of the Mason-Dixon Line are also seeing a predominance of ""brawn over brains,"" the percentage of the population without a college degree compared to the percentage of the population with a college degree, he said.

Large cities like New York and Chicago are seeing increases in their Hispanic populations, but decreases in most other ethnic groups. Atlanta saw a decrease in its white and black population, though the Atlanta metro area saw a strong increase in its black population.

Other urban areas are seeing strong growth in their Hispanic populations, while other suburban areas are seeing influx of black residents, he said.

Another factor in the population trends is that about 70 percent of the new seniors over the next several years are predominately white, while whites are a minority of new children in the U.S.
He advised young mortgage bankers to look at the new Sunbelt states along the Atlantic Coast along with North Carolina and Colorado and Texas as the prime areas for future business growth.

Utah is another potential mortgage growth area because the median age is only 29, meaning strong expected growth in household formation ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô the people who will be looking to buy homes, he said.

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