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Shifting Dynamics Keep Market Resilient in October

Even with the seasonal slowdown in full effect, shifting market conditions continued to boost October home sales and prices over last year, ""Redfin"":http://www.redfin.com/ reported Wednesday in its monthly ""Real-Time Price Tracker"":http://www.redfin.com/research/reports/real-time-price-tracker/2013/home-prices-and-sales-october-2013.html#.UoOc1vmkofR.

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The broker recorded 74,363 total home sales across its 19 tracked markets in October, a 1.0 percent decline from September but a 0.6 percent gain over October 2012.

While national sales were fairly strong, Redfin observed ""substantial weakness"" in the West, with a number of California and Arizona markets posting year-over-year decreases in sales. The company attributed the regional decline to a lack of inventory, which continues to take a toll on figures.

On the other hand, Washington, D.C., showed surprising resilience in the wake of the partial government shutdown. Even with its large numbers of furloughed employees, sales in the nation's capital were up 2.0 [COLUMN_BREAK]

percent month-over-month and 11.6 percent year-over-year.

At the national level, the median sale price in October was $327,302, a decline of 0.9 percent from September and an increase of 15.3 percent from the same time last year.

Seven of the 19 reporting metros posted monthly price increases--and most of them were the same Western markets suffering in sales.

""Month-over-month price increases were seen in Las Vegas, Long Island, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Riverside, and San Francisco, with Sacramento unchanged,"" said Redfin analyst Tommy Unger. ""Year-over-year increases were seen in all 19 metros with Las Vegas, Sacramento, and Riverside leading the way with 30 percent year-over-year median sale price increases.""

Meanwhile, inventory ""continues to be the low point in the housing market,"" falling 10.4 percent year-over-year and 5.5 percent month-over-month. Redfin calculated a total of 245,875 homes for sale in its tracked markets in October.

Though historically low mortgage rates and reduced competition have helped keep numbers up, Unger says the situation is liable to change at any time.

""If mortgage rates remain low, November and December may see stronger-than-normal sales as homebuyers try to get a leg up on spring competition. However, positive economic data has already pushed mortgage rates slightly higher in November, with daily rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages rising from 4.1 percent to 4.39 percent,"" he said. ""Continued rising rates and a lack of inventory could take the steam out of this late season demand.""

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