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Mortgage originations for one- to four-family homes have risen steadily over the year, yet refinances made up a bulk of the activity recorded to date, according to the latest ""forecast"":http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/82584_.pdf from the ""Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)."":http://www.mbaa.org/default.htm
[IMAGE]Over the third quarter of this year, about $471 billion in mortgage loans were originated, up from $395 billion in the second quarter. MBA expects to end the year with about $507 billion in originations in the fourth quarter.
The total dollar amount of mortgage loans originated for the year should be about $1.746 trillion, according to MBA.
Despite the steady rise over this year, MBA predicts somewhat of a lull next year, with about $431 billion in [COLUMN_BREAK]
loans originated in the first quarter, dropping to about $233 billion by the fourth quarter of 2013.
Additionally, while originations have risen each quarter so far in 2012, so has the share refinances making up that total. In the first quarter of this year, refinances made up about 68 percent of all loan originations. MBA expects refinances will make up 77 percent of fourth-quarter originations.
Purchase originations have not moved quite as steadily over the year. First-quarter purchase originations totaled about $119 billion. They rose to $132 billion in the second quarter before dropping in the third and are expected to end the year where they started, with about $119 billion in originations.
However, 2013 will be a year of reversing trends in originations, according to MBA's forecast. Refinances, after ending the fourth quarter of 2012 with about $388 billion in originations, are expected to fall to a mere $93 billion by the fourth quarter of next year.
The opposite will occur for purchase originations, which are expected to rise to $125 billion in the first quarter and reach $140 billion in the fourth quarter of next year.
The share of refinances in total mortgage originations will fall from 71 percent overall in 2012 to 56 percent in 2013 and even further down to 33 percent over the year in 2014, according to MBA.
