While many analysts are forecasting fewer finances and more purchase loans [1] for the year ahead, the October 2016 Mortgage Monitor from Black Knight Financial Services [2] found that the population of refinanceable borrowers is already shrinking—by millions.
Interest rates that have risen above 4 percent after hovering in the 3.40 to 3.50 range, slightly above record lows, for much of the year have removed the incentive for approximately 4.3 million borrowers (out of 8.3 million) to refinance their mortgage loan, according to Black Knight. That reduction equates to more than half of the refinanceable population, leaving 4 million in that pool. The spike in interest rates equates to adding $16,400 to the average home price over the space of just a couple of weeks, according to Black Knight.
“We’re now looking at a population of just 4 million total, matching a 24-month low set back in July 2015,” Black Knight Data & Analytics Executive Vice President Ben Graboske. “While there are still two million borrowers who could save $200 or more per month by refinancing and a cumulative $1 billion per month in potential savings, this is less than half of the $2.1 billion per month that was available just four short weeks ago.”
The third quarter just experienced its highest refinance origination volume $270 billion) for a quarter in more than three years; overall during Q3 there were $579 billion worth of loans originated, highest volume for any one quarter in seven years, driven by a 17 percent increase over-the-quarter in refinance origination volume, according to Black Knight. This may be short-lived, however.
“These changes will likely have an impact on refinance origination volumes moving forward. And, since higher interest rates tend to reduce the refinance share of the market—specifically in higher credit segments—which typically outperform their purchase mortgage counterparts, they may potentially impact overall mortgage performance as well,” Graboske said.
Click here [2] to view the entire Mortgage Monitor for October 2016.