Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Dec. 13-14, CoreLogic [1] has announced the release of its latest Home Price Insights report [2] (HPI) covering October 2022 along with forecasts for 2023.
CoreLogic’s report is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends at the national, state, and metropolitan levels and has 40 years of data to compare to current trends.
On a national level, home prices (including distressed sales) increased on a yearly basis by 10.1% in October 2022. On a monthly basis, the HPI declined by 0.1% in October 2022 compared to September 2022.
Home prices also cooled to levels last seen in 2021 due to mortgage rates, but low inventory will still prop prices up. Home price acceleration is projected to decline steadily until next spring, when the market could post some annual losses, but then will slowly tick back into single digits as the rest of the year progresses.
“Following the recent mortgage rate surge above 7%, real estate activity and consumer sentiment regarding the housing market took a nosedive,” said Selma Hepp [3], Interim Lead of the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. “Home price growth continued to approach single digits in October, and it will move in that direction for the rest of the year and into 2023.”
“However,” Hepp continued, “while some housing markets have seen significant recalibration since the spring price peak and are likely to post losses in 2023, further deteriorating for-sale inventory, some relief in mortgage rate increases and relatively positive economic news may help eventually stabilize home prices.”
Top Takeaways:
- U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) increased 10.1% year over year in October 2022 compared to October 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.1% compared to September 2022.
- In October, annual appreciation of detached properties (10.1%) was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (9.8%).
- Annual U.S. home price gains are forecast to slow to 4.1% by October 2023.
- Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 20 largest metro areas in October, at 22.6%, while Tampa, Florida retained the No. 2 slot at 20%.
- Florida and South Carolina recorded the highest home price gains, 20.2% and 16.1%, respectively. Georgia and North Carolina tied for third, with 15.3% year-over-year increases. Washington, D.C. ranked last for appreciation at 0.2%.