Pro Teck Valuation Services released their Home Value Forecast (HVF) recently showing that the top and bottom 10 housing markets at the end of 2015 are pretty consistent with previous reports.
However, the picture could change completely in 2016 if interest rates begin edging up following the Fed's decision to raise rates on Wednesday.
“Our top ten have been fairly consistent, as limited supply and low interest rates continue to push these markets. This list will change if we see an increase in interest rates early in 2016,” said O’Grady.
Pro Teck's Top 10 CBSAs include:
- Bellingham, Washington
- Bend-Redmond, Oregon
- Boise City, Indiana
- Boulder, Colorado
- Eugene, Oregon
- Oak Harbor, Washington
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Oregon-Washington
- Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, California
- Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA Stockton-Lodi, Calirfornia
- Stockton-Lodi, California
Pro Teck's Bottom 10 CBSAs include:
- Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Florida
- Huntington-Ashland, West Virginia-Kentucky-Ohio
- Joplin, Missouri
- Lake County-Kenosha County, Illinois-Wisconsin
- Lake Havasu City-Kingman, Arizona
- McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
- Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wisconsin
- Midland, Texas
- Atlantic City-Hammonton, New Jersey
- Jacksonville, North Carolina
The report also identified trends in the real estate market over the last 12 months by looking at the top three core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) in terms of current sales price, twelve-month active list, current months of remaining inventory, and twelve-month sales price appreciation.
The report showed that San, Francisco, San Rafael, and San Jose, all located in California, were leaders on Pro Teck's lists in 2014 and 2015 in terms of home prices.
“Last year we forecasted that San Francisco’s home prices would start to stabilize–that did not happen as average sold price is now over $1.2 million,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “One reason for this was that interest rates have stayed at historic lows, making homes more affordable at all price points. With interest rate increases anticipated in the near future, we will keep an eye on the impact on 2016 home prices.”
In terms of twelve-month active list price appreciation, Pro Teck's data showed that College Station-Bryan, Texas was at the top of list with an active price change of 46.32 percent.
Three West Coast markets led the current months of remaining inventory competition, with approximately two months inventory. Pro Teck says this leads to " fierce competition for homes and many selling for above asking price."
The top three CBSAs on Pro Teck's list all had more than 20 percent home sale price appreciation for 2015, but all were very affected by the housing crisis.
“What these numbers reflect is that the market has responded to the bargains that are out there, and that the housing market has begun to reflect supply/demand fundamentals,” said O’Grady. “Our top three are now seeing steady appreciation as they recover.”
Click here to read the full report.