July Originations Pick Up, but Will It Last?

Initial mortgage data from July points to a sharp increase in residential originations, though numbers for 2014 as a whole still look to be far off last year's activity.

Based on data from Bloomberg, investment bank FBR Capital Markets estimates issuance of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) last month came to approximately $90 billion, marking a "significant improvement" from June and May.

Going by issuance numbers, FBR estimates residential originations totaled $112 billion, putting lending activity at a run-rate of $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion for the year.

However, with July's estimated results, year-to-date originations are at approximately $633 billion, and with the historically stronger summer months now done, FBR expects "the strong pace set in July could slow materially in August, September, and beyond."

As of August, the firm's outlook for 2014 still calls for less than $1 trillion in origination volumes, though that could change if the fall season kicks off with equally strong activity.

In other developments, FBR noted government agencies have continued to move toward opening up credit, with Fannie Mae unveiling changes to some of its policies dealing with borrowers with major strikes on their credit records.

Still, the group says that isn't enough: "Ultimately, we believe further policy support and clarity surrounding regulatory issues will be necessary for the banks themselves to expand their credit boxes."