Tag Archives: Capital Economics

As more companies launch their own home price metrics, the much-watched Case-Shiller indices have readjusted their methodology to adapt—and revealed a different picture of home prices in the last few months than originally reported. While the new index comes as a "welcome improvement," it also throws a wrench into what analysts previously knew about home prices during and after the crash, says Paul Diggle, property economist for Capital Economics.

Based on weekly data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), macroeconomics firm Capital Economics calculated a 0.4 percent monthly decline in mortgage applications in August. It was the third drop in the last three months, following declines of 0.1 percent in June and 3.4 percent in July.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment came in at 79.2 in the preliminary August reading, down from a final reading of 81.8 in July and several points below the consensus forecast of 82.3. It was the lowest reading since last November, when the country was still shaking off the effects of October's government shutdown.

According to data reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and compiled by Capital Economics, mortgage application volumes slipped an additional 3.4 percent in July following June's 0.1 percent decline. Declines were nearly even in both purchase loan volumes, which fell 3.6 percent, and refinances, which were down 3.3 percent.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment measured 81.3 in its first July reading, falling more than a point from its final June reading of 82.5. Analysts surveyed before Friday's release had predicted the index would climb up slightly to 83.

From April 2013 through March 2014, Chinese buyers accounted for 16 percent of foreign home sales, up from 12 percent in 2013. In dollar volume, China's share is higher, accounting for 24 percent of sales during that period. "Put another way, the value of homes bought by Chinese buyers in the US has increased from $1.2 [billion] to $7.5 [billion], or slightly more than 500 percent, over five years," said Paul Diggle at Capital Economics.

Macroeconomic research company Capital Economics calculated a 0.1 percent decline in total loan application volumes throughout June following a 1.8 percent uptick in May. The company's figures are based on weekly reports put out by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). So far this year, applications have risen in three months and fallen in the other three.

The University of Michigan's measure of consumer sentiment dropped from 81.9 to 81.2 in June with the decline entirely spurred by a decline in the expectations index. While expectations turned slightly sour in June, the current conditions index experienced an increase from 94.5 to 95.4.

Using information reported weekly by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), research firm Capital Economics calculated a 2.0 percent rise in application volumes throughout May, a reversal from April's 4.8 percent drop. The increase came despite a 3.1 percent decline in the month's final week, bringing activity to a six-week low.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released Thursday its second look at gross domestic product (GDP) for Q1, estimating an annualized 1.0 percent decline as private inventory investment dropped further than originally reported. BEA's first estimate, released late April, put growth at an estimated annual rate of 0.1 percent compared to Q4's final rate of 2.6 percent.