Tag Archives: Capital Economics

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) application data for last month showed a 0.1 percent bump in total application volume, down from a gain of 2.5 percent in January. Growth was toppled by a 9.0 percent drop in applications for home purchases, which were at their lowest level in more than 18 years in February—despite a 9 percent week-over-week improvement to close out the month.

The University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters Index of Consumer Sentiment stood at a reading of 81.2 in an early-look report released Friday. The index was unchanged from its final January reading. The mid-February reading was affected by deterioration in the gauge measuring perceptions about current conditions, which fell to 94.0 from January's 96.8. That was offset by a pickup in the measure of six-month expectations, which rose to 73.0 from 71.2 previously.

Using weekly stats published by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Capital Economics calculated a 2.5 percent increase in applications last month, turning the trend around from an 18.2 percent decline in December and a 1.3 percent drop in November. With the refinance boom in the rearview, Capital Economics shifted its focus to purchase applications, which rose 3.1 percent in January. As for future movements, the firm's outlook paints an unclear picture.

Ever since home prices bottomed out, increases in Nevada, Arizona, California, and Florida have outpaced the country. At the same time, however, homebuilding has remained "very subdued."

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Friday its Employment Situation Report, revealing job growth well below consensus forecasts. According to the government report, the U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs last month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped 0.3 percentage points to 6.7 percent, reflecting a precipitous drop in the labor force. BLS' report shows the labor force participation rate falling 0.2 percentage points to 62.8 percent.

Mortgage applications declined at the end of the year, but Capital Economics expects applications to rise this year as both the housing market and broader economy continue to improve.

With investment activity diminishing and mortgage-dependent buyers returning, economists at Capital Economics say the housing market can look forward to a more moderate pace of price increases.

The University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters Index of Consumer Sentiment climbed to a five-month high of 82.5 in a preliminary report, increasing more than seven points over November's final reading and beating a consensus forecast of 75.5. Both of the components measuring confidence in current and future conditions increased. The Current Conditions Index rose to its own five-month high of 97.9 from November's 88.0, while the expectations index increased to a four-month peak of 72.7 from 66.8.

Using weekly application numbers released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), economic analysis firm Capital Economics calculated a 1.3 percent decrease in total applications for November.

The University of Michigan's preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment report shows a drop in confidence for November--and Capital Economics' Amna Asaf is at a loss to explain why.