Tag Archives: Confidence

Mortgage rates began 2014 with a round of increases, kicking off a trend many experts believe will continue through the rest of the year. Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaging 4.53 percent (0.8 point) for the week ending January 2, up from the last week of 2013, when it averaged 4.48 percent. Meanwhile, Bankrate.com reported the 30-year fixed at 4.69 percent, a gain of 6 basis points.

Consumer confidence saw a boost in December on heightened optimism for the job market, the Conference Board reported.

According to the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), builder sentiment picked up in December to end the year at 58. The index first climbed to that level in August before falling to 57 in September and 54 in October and November. After struggling through most of the year's first half, the headline index climbed above the 50 mark in June for the first time since 2006; it has stayed in the 50-range ever since.

An increasingly cautious outlook for the economy has put a crimp in the housing market's forward momentum, according to Fannie Mae's latest National Housing Survey. Doug Duncan, SVP and chief economist at Fannie Mae, said: "We continue to see caution as the defining feature of Americans' attitudes toward the economy and their personal financial situation. In this environment, the housing recovery is likely to improve, but only at a gradual pace."

The University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters Index of Consumer Sentiment climbed to a five-month high of 82.5 in a preliminary report, increasing more than seven points over November's final reading and beating a consensus forecast of 75.5. Both of the components measuring confidence in current and future conditions increased. The Current Conditions Index rose to its own five-month high of 97.9 from November's 88.0, while the expectations index increased to a four-month peak of 72.7 from 66.8.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment, a joint measure tracked by the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters, rose to 75.1 for the final November tally, making up some of the ground lost in October, when it dropped to 73.2. Last year, the index was measured at 82.7. While November's improvement made up somewhat for October's shutdown-related losses, consumers still feel stung by the government's economic debate. Spontaneous negative references to the government's economic policies were made by 32 percent of Americans in November.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped two points to 70.4 in the most recent reading, the company reported. The decline follows a more substantial decrease in October stemming from the partial federal government shutdown. "Sentiment regarding current conditions was mixed, with consumers saying the job market had strengthened, while economic conditions had slowed," explained Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. "However, these sentiments did not carry over into the short-term outlook."

Despite a softening market, competition among buyers remained fairly fierce in October, Redfin reported in its Real-Time Bidding Wars release for the month. Last month, 55.9 percent of offers written by the brokerage's agents faced competition from other buyers, a decline from 58.3 percent in September. Bidding wars have been on a downward slope since peaking at 79 percent in February. Even with the decline, though, competition last month was higher than expected, given the effects of the government shutdown on consumer confidence.

Builder confidence remained flat in the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) November report, with a slight majority of builders saying market conditions are promising. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) came out to 54 this month, unchanged from October's downwardly revised reading. An index value above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor; November marks the sixth straight month in which confidence has hovered above the neutral mark.

The University of Michigan's preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment report shows a drop in confidence for November--and Capital Economics' Amna Asaf is at a loss to explain why.