Tag Archives: Doug Duncan

Month-over-month, HUD and the Census Bureau reported an 8.7% drop-off in new home sales in August, with sales impeded by mortgage rates over the 7% mark.

“Mortgage rates once again breached the 7% mark in August, hitting a 22-year high and doing no favors for consumer sentiment,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae SVP and Chief Economist.

For a litany of reasons—including rising prices and inflation—most consumers surveyed believe that now is not a good time to purchase a home.

A new poll by Fannie Mae has found that 73% of respondents believe the U.S. economy is on the “wrong track,” with a vast majority of lenders feeling the economy is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to enter a recession in the next two years.

Fannie Mae's latest Home Price Index reveals home prices grew 3% year-over-year in Q2, and while demand remained resilient, competition heated up for the near-historically limited supply of existing homes for sale.

“Confidence in the housing market appears to have plateaued at a relatively low level, suggesting that many consumers may be coming to terms with elevated mortgage rates and high home prices,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae SVP and Chief Economist.

The MBA reports that new home sales have been driving purchase activity in recent months, as buyers continue to seek options beyond the existing-home market.

“We forecast single-family purchase mortgage originations to be $1.32 trillion in 2023 and $1.41 trillion in 2024, representing downward revisions of $41 billion and $60 billion, respectively, relative to last month’s forecast,” the ESR said.

“There are select data available to support several alternative views of the path of the economy, though we maintain our view that a modest recession will begin in the second half of 2023,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae.

The Home Purchase Sentiment Index published monthly by Fannie Mae reported yet another increase to its highest level since May 2022, mainly due to greater consumer optimism about mortgage rates.