Tag Archives: Forecast

In its 2015 housing market forecast, the California Association of Realtors (CAR) calls for existing-home sales in the state to reach 402,500 next year, an increase of 5.8 percent from 2014's projected sales figure of 380,500. Even with the increase, home sales are still expected to fall short of last year's total of 414,300, demonstrating how much California's market has slowed down in 2014.

Many mortgage professionals believe the outlook for their business in the next six months is "grim," according to a report from the Collingwood Group. Only 30 percent of mortgage industry professionals surveyed for the report believe that business conditions will be better in the next six months, while 41 percent said conditions will stay the same and 29 percent said they believe conditions will be worse.

Fannie Mae's chief economist, Doug Duncan, said the latest employment report supports Fannie's "forecast of solid economic growth," and is consistent with the company's September National Housing Survey, "which is expected to show a rebound in consumer expectations regarding housing after a couple of months of eroding confidence."

Signs increasingly point to economic momentum building in the coming year, according to economists at TD Bank. In a forecast put out Thursday, the bank's economics team calls for economic growth of 3.0 percent in 2015 following average growth of 2.2 percent this year.

An upward revision in GDP growth for the second quarter bolstered optimism at Fannie Mae for the rest of the year's economic track. The mortgage giant's Economic and Strategic Research Group put out its newest outlook on Tuesday, calling for accelerated growth following the most recent news of 4.2 percent annualized GDP growth in the year's second quarter. On the other hand, the housing market is still struggling to find any real traction.

Former Goldman Sachs executive Joshua Pollard on Wednesday sent a sobering 18-page report to the White House warning of a potential nosedive in home prices that could put the country back into a recession before the ripples of the previous one settle. According to Pollard, the former head of the Goldman's housing research team, home price appreciation is outpacing income, and the United States is on the brink of a 15 percent decline in home prices over the next three years.

A new survey released by the Wall Street Journal finds most don't expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates until mid-summer 2015 or later. In a poll of economists nationwide, the Journal found only about a third believe the Fed will start hiking up rates before June next year. That number is down from 45 percent of economists in the publication's August survey.

After half a year of failed predictions and slow starts, the U.S. economy actually appears to be closing in on normal, at least according to Freddie Mac. Freddie's latest Economic and Housing Market Outlook shows that the agency expects to see the U.S. housing market driven once again by fundamentals—jobs, household formations, and affordability—rather than economic upheaval.

A slower than anticipated first half has killed off any enthusiasm economists had for housing at the start of 2014, a survey published by the Wall Street Journal finds. In the Journal's latest monthly survey, a panel of economic experts called for new housing starts to average a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.01 million this year, a 9 percent decline from their prediction at the beginning of the year.

Despite an anticipated pickup in economic growth and housing recovery in the second half of this year, Fannie Mae expects the economy to grow at just 1.5 percent overall this year. Fannie revised its previous estimate of 2.1 percent growth for 2014 after a disappointing start to the year.