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Tag Archives: Forecast

Leading Economic Indicators Up for Fourth Straight Month

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which tracks signs of future developments, rose 0.5 percent in May to 101.7, building on gains of 0.3 percent in April and 1.0 percent in March. "Housing permits held the index back slightly but the LEI still points to an expanding economy and its pace may even pick up in the second half of the year," said Conference Board economist Ataman Ozyildirim.

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Freddie Curbs Expectations in Mid-Year Assessment

Despite a disappointing first quarter and a mediocre second quarter, Freddie Mac still expects the economy to improve throughout the second half of 2014. The company is, however, tempering its New Year's optimism. In its June U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook, released Thursday, Freddie offers a mid-year assessment that sees more humble growth across most sectors.

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Road to Recovery Expected to Lengthen

In a market update, Wells Fargo's Economics Group contends that the road to housing recovery will be longer—and much bumpier—than expected. The group said that the "lack of a rebound in home sales this spring has reinforced our view that there was more than harsh winter weather behind the recent slide in home sales and mortgage applications."

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Economists Forecast Moderating Price Gains

In a survey of 31 economists, Reuters arrived at a median forecast of price growth of 7.5 percent this year, down significantly from the 13.4 percent improvement recorded in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index last December. The survey also found that, despite concerns from some analysts of overheating as price gains far outpace the historical average, the median judgment of economists surveyed is that the housing market is situated right in the middle between extremely overvalued and extremely undervalued.

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Fannie Trims Growth Forecast in Wake of Q1 Disappointment

To its credit, Fannie Mae did not expect soaring growth in the 2014 housing market in the first place. But even its hopes for modest growth have cooled as the lingering effects of a harsh winter and a combination of reduced affordability and consumer reticence regarding mortgages weigh down the national housing market.

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The Supply and Demand of Housing

As housing metrics continue to take unexpected turns, it’s become clear by now that the current recovery has functioned unlike any other. In the company's latest Economic & Housing Market Outlook, economists Frank Nothaft and Leonard Kiefer at Freddie Mac took a look at three fundamental areas—mortgage rates, home sales, and household formations—to figure out why.

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Despite Headwinds, Forecasts Remain Hopeful

Despite many beginning-of-the-year predictions about spring growth in the housing market falling flat, and despite a still chugging economy that changes its mind quarter-to-quarter, economists at the National Association of Realtors and other industry groups expect an uptick in the economy and housing market through next year. The key to NAR's optimism, as expressed by the organization's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, last week, is a hefty pent-up demand for houses coupled with expectations of job growth—which itself has been more feeble than anticipated.

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Experts Split on Housing Affordability Concerns

In a survey of 106 experts in housing and investments, Zillow found a slight majority—28 percent—pinned the most blame for declining affordability on stagnant income growth across the country, even as the rest of the economy has moved in a generally positive direction. At the same time, the number of respondents pointing to "abnormally high rates of home price and rent appreciation" as the main problem was only slightly smaller at 27 percent.

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Price Gains Keep Slowing; Expected to Halve by 2014

Home prices continued to rise in March, but at a markedly slower pace compared to February, CoreLogic reported in its latest Home Price Index. According to the company, prices were up 11.1 percent nationally year-over-year in March, with growth expected to slow to an annual rate of 6.7 percent by the same time in 2015. Both figures include distressed sales.

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Brakes Expected to Keep Pumping on Price Gains

After nearly two years of frenzied price appreciation, home price gains are expected to drop off, according to the latest report from Veros Real Estate Solutions, a provider of enterprise risk management, collateral valuation, and predictive analytics. However, Veros does not cast a negative outlook for the market. Rather, the firm anticipates a stable market with slow price appreciation. “The wave of appreciation may have crested, but it has been an impressive recovery in many respects,” said Eric Fox, VP of statistical an economic modeling at Veros.

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