Tag Archives: Forecast

Wells Fargo's Economics Group recently released its July 2014 economic outlook for Minnesota, reinforcing that while the state's economy is greatly improved, housing still lags behind, with traditional homebuyers in no great hurry to return to the market.

Economic growth so far this year has been "bittersweet" as housing takes a backseat in moving the recovery forward, Freddie Mac said Monday in its July 2014 Economic and Housing Outlook. But with employment bouncing back and household formations expected to improve, all is not last, says Freddie Mac VP and chief economist Frank Nothaft.

The housing market overall really is recovering, despite a lackluster so far this year. It's just going to take a lot longer in several markets, according to Zillow. According to the second-quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Report, home values in half of the nation's 100 largest metro areas will not return to their pre-recession peak levels for at least three years. In a few markets, full recovery will take more than a decade.

Redfin released its latest market summary, which sees the combination of sales, prices, foot traffic, and inventory as positive signs heading into the fall. "After an abysmal first quarter that drove a disappointing first half, housing will be playing catch-up for the year," said Nela Richardson, Redfin's chief economist. "Though it won't be a seamless transition, we believe the housing market is positioning itself for a stronger finish in the second half of the year."

Market trends across the United States indicate a recovering real estate market—but not a bubble—according to the latest Home Value Forecast from Pro Teck Valuation Services. According to the forecast, the housing economy is in healthy rebound, so much so that even the markets showing the greatest appreciation are not near 2006 figures, when the market was at its historical peak.

Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 46 percent of Americans polled expect home prices to rise, Fannie Mae reported in its latest National Housing Survey. That share is down from 48 percent in May and 50 percent in April. On average, respondents anticipate a home price change of 2.4 percent, down half a percentage point from the previous two surveys and the lowest forecast since January, when news of a slowdown in price gains affected attitudes.

Property analytics firm CoreLogic reported an 8.8 percent year-over-year increase in its May Home Price Index (HPI), marking 27 straight months of annual improvement. Taking out distressed sales, the HPI was up 8.1 percent year-on-year. May's figure represents another slowdown in the annual rate of home price gains, which are now down almost 3 percentage points compared to only a few months ago.

The latest economic forecast from Fannie Mae shows that the underwhelming performance of the economy in the first three months of the year and a shrinking GDP have significantly dulled the optimism economists once had for the overall 2014 economy. Fannie stated that the rough U.S. first quarter has caused its Economic & Strategic Research Group to reduce 2014 economic growth expectations.

In an annual report, Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard suggests Millennial participation is the key to a robust housing recovery. The number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing, the report predicts. For now, tight credit, elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are curbing growth.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which tracks signs of future developments, rose 0.5 percent in May to 101.7, building on gains of 0.3 percent in April and 1.0 percent in March. "Housing permits held the index back slightly but the LEI still points to an expanding economy and its pace may even pick up in the second half of the year," said Conference Board economist Ataman Ozyildirim.