Tag Archives: Housing Starts

How much have housing sales recovered compared to 2008's levels? According to the most recent measures released by the "U.S. Treasury, 2012's sales fall somewhere in the middle between 2008's highs and 2011's lows. The latest monthly data on U.S. economic statistics shows new home sales reached an annualized average of 368,000 in October. While that statistic comes in above 2010's annualized monthly average of 321,000--and well above 2011's average of 307,000--it still falls short of previous years.

Despite a continuing surge in builder confidence, housing starts dropped 3.0 percent in November to 861,000, the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) reported jointly Wednesday. Single-family starts dropped 4.1 percent in November, accounting for most of the drop in total starts. Activity was unaffected by superstorm Sandy, which hit the Northeast at the end of October, as most of the drop in single-family starts came in the West and Midwest.

Builder confidence continued to improve in December as the Housing Market Index (HMI) rose two points to 47--its highest level since April 2006--the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported Tuesday. It was the eighth straight monthly increase in the index and matched economist expectations. Two of the three components of the index improved--the measures of current sales and buyer traffic--while the gauge of sales six months out slipped one point from the revised November reading of 52 (down from the original 53).

Strong positive indicators in the housing market have Capital Economics revising its predictions on growth in 2013 and beyond.

According to Fannie Mae, the fundamentals are set in place for a solid housing recovery. The GSE revised its housing forecast for this year and the next to reflect changes made in the housing market, including low interest rates, rising prices, and a healing labor market. Analysts for the company also note that there is an upside risk to their forecast, as "pent-up demand amid stronger household formation may result in stronger housing activity next year" than what's expected.

Housing starts rose 3.6 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 894,000--the highest level since July 2008--but permits for new residential construction fell, the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported jointly Tuesday. Permits and starts for September were revised lower, making the month-over-month percentage growth for starts stronger. Permits in October were down 2.7 percent from September to 866,000.

Builder confidence continued its march to "break-even," with the Housing Market Index (HMI) climbing five points in November to 46.

In a US Housing Market Update released by the firm, analyst and property economist Paul Diggle notes that while "a substantial overhang of properties still in the shadow inventory" will keep distressed sellers in the market, the peak in distressed supply appears to be well behind us, giving homebuilders more room to grow with less competition from discounted homes. In addition, short sales--typically sold at a smaller discount--have been gaining traction as foreclosure sales drop, creating "less of a depressing influence on the new-build market."

In a webinar hosted by the NAHB, economists discussed the housing recovery, what's keeping it going, and what may throw it off course.

Housing starts and permits jumped in September to their highest levels since July 2008, Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported jointly Wednesday. Housing starts jumped 15.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 872,000 while permits improved 11.6 percent to 894,000. Single family starts represented 69.2 percent of the total in September, matching their year-to-date share. Single family starts made up 71.5 percent of all starts for the same period in 2011.