Tag Archives: Mark Fleming

According to the First American Real House Price Index, housing affordability dropped to its lowest point in more than three decades, with home prices jumping 2% from June.

In a new blog post, First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming explains that " “mortgage rate stability, even if the stabilization occurs at a higher level, is the key to a housing recovery.”

As the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate nears 8%, new commentary from First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming details the predictions of where mortgage rates will end up throughout the remainder of the year.

“The steep decline in sales driven by the rapid rise in mortgage rates seems to be behind us, as the initial shock of higher mortgage rates has worn off,” said Mark Fleming, the Chief Economist for First American Financial Corporation.

Boom-bust markets include Phoenix and Austin, Texas. House prices increased 65% from February 2020 to the peak in May of 2022 for both markets, but have since declined by 9.5%

According to First American’s Potential Home Sales Model, the nationwide sales pace will begin to settle into a new normal, as potential existing-home sales decreased in June, suggesting they may have hit bottom.

“Affordability declined month-over-month in all of the 50 markets we track, but some markets saw a much sharper decline than others,” said First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

“The housing market remains sluggish heading into the spring homebuying season. While mortgage rates have retreated from recent peaks, they remain elevated compared with one year ago,” Chief Economist Mark Fleming said.

While nominal house price appreciation slowed in response to affordability-constrained demand, new data revealed falling house prices could cause foreclosures to jump, according to the First American Real House Price Index,

“While the NFCI Credit index indicated that credit tightened in March, which reduced housing market potential, the credit tightening was modest and far from recent pandemic lows, and certainly nothing like the Great Financial Crisis period,” said Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American.