Tag Archives: Pending-Home Sales

Economists usually do it with models, so it's rare in economics to be able to conduct a laboratory experiment.

The National Association of Realtors' (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose 1.5 percent to 105.7 in March, the highest level in almost three years, the group reported.

The numbers and headlines last week offered mixed signals: Existing-home sales dropped month-to-month as the median price increased, while another report showed new home sales fell as the median price increased.

After experiencing the sharpest drop in two years in February, new home sales increased 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 417,000 in March, the Census Bureau and HUD reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected March sales to increase to 419,000 from a February's originally reported 411,000. The median price of a new home, according to the Census-HUD report, plunged $17,900 (or 6.8 percent) in March to $247,000, the largest month-over-month decline since February 2011.

Sometimes a story just fits--and sometimes it doesn't. Given that maxim, the explanation from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) for the drop in the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) for February has to be viewed with a jaundiced eye. According to the NAR, the PHSI dropped because of the low inventory of homes for sale. Of course, that wasn't offered as an explanation one month earlier, when the inventory of homes for sale dropped, and the PHSI increased.

One of the most interesting results of poring through economic data reports is that the details often tell a different story than the headline. Coverage of the recent report on housing permits and starts, for example, was dominated by the increases in both metrics, suggesting a revival of the housing sector, a response some analysts suggested is due to tight inventories of existing-single family homes on the market. However, a closer look revealed a more important phenomenon.

Existing-home sales rose 0.8 percent in February to 4.98 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. Economists had expected the sales pace to climb to 5.01 million from January├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔÇ×┬ós originally reported 4.92 million. January sales were revised up to 4.94 million.

Fixed mortgage rates took a major leap up last week amid news of a growing economy led in part by the recovering housing market.

The NAR's Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell 4.3 percent to 101.7 in December, the sharpest month-over-month drop since April.

New home sales jumped 4.4 percent in November to 377,000, the highest level since April 2010, the Census Bureau and HUD.