Tag Archives: Unemployment

The chief economist with Fannie Mae said Tuesday that Europe is "clearly" in recession and forecasted that the United States will endure market corrections for the next five years as housing largely stays in the doldrums. Fannie Mae economist Doug Duncan spoke at the 2011 MPact Mortgage Banking Conference and Expo, which former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice headlined Monday evening. Rice discussed problems with the euro zone during her keynote address. Duncan predicted that annual growth will hedge toward 1.5 percent over the next year.

In good economic news, payrolls picked up 120,000 jobs in Nov., helping shrink employment to 8.6 percent ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô the lowest in more than two years, according to The Labor Department.

The Federal Reserve released the Beige Report, describing a stable national economy eclipsed by low consumer confidence and a housing market focused on rental properties.

Even with a pickup in the general economy, overall growth will remain flat into the New Year, slowing any impact from the housing market and delaying significant changes, according to a think tank internal to Fannie Mae. The mortgage company described circumstances going forward as those vulnerable to weak jobs growth, external shocks from the euro zone, and pickups or drops in consumer spending and confidence. Troubled euro zone markets continued to weigh down on the forecast.

More mortgage professionals received a desk and day job as hiring rose and layoffs fell over the third quarter, according to a recent study. In releasing the Third-Quarter 2011 Mortgage Employment Index, industry data offered up a net gain of 2,738 jobs for mortgage lenders and other professionals. New hires leapt ahead to 5,240 over the third quarter, offering considerable contrast to 2,502 layoffs over the same time frame. Of these last third-quarter gains, Texas emerged as the state with the most at 699 job gains.

Today├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔÇ×┬ós record-low mortgage rates and southerly home sales will post gains into next year, according to the economist with one trade group. Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, predicted at the 2011 Realtors Conference and Expo that home sales and existing-home sales would rise, along with mortgage rates. He said that GDP would climb from a 1.8-percent slump to 2.2 percent over next year, as job growth marches toward 2.2 million and the unemployment rate falls to 8.7 percent.

The GSEs remain a mainstay in debates over the role of the government in housing, but some now say the Federal Housing Administration may take a turn as the next agency in need of bailout funds. A new study by Joseph Gyourko, a University of Pennsylvania real estate and finance professor, highlights future peril for the agency, predicting that it may need as much as $50 billion in federal funds over the next several years just to stay solvent. Some analysts say the real threat is not from a bailout but from sapped liquidity and credit for homeowners.

As pressure builds to repeal the Dodd-Frank Act, one lawmaker pushed back by formally requesting an analysis of the rulemaking effort and financial consequences under the financial legislative overhaul. Sen. Tim Johnson wrote two letters to public officials Thursday to make the request, with clear intentions to secure a formal, objective analysis that lends credibility to the financial law and overall rulemaking process. Included agencies in the requested analyses: the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Federal Housing Finance agency.

Existing-home prices sagged in most metropolitan areas over the third quarter, pointing to a soft spot in job security for people across the country as home affordability hovers around record highs. A quarterly report by the National Association of Realtors revealed that more than two-thirds of all metropolitan areas suffered plunges in home prices from last year. The NAR found state existing-home sales falling by 0.1 percent to crest at a seasonally adjusted 4.9 million over the third quarter. First-time buyers bought up 32 percent of homes.

Nonfarm payrolls counted more than 80,000 new jobs for the economy over October, slashing the unemployment rate by a few percentage points but at a clip that analysts say will marginally improve an otherwise uncertain economic outlook. The Labor Department reported Friday that the jump to more than 100,000 new jobs over September - a facelift driven largely by a return to work by striking Verizon employees - slid back to new figures with few surprising numbers for several industries.