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Tag Archives: Unemployment

September Unemployment Rate at 7.2%, Job Growth Still Weak

Unemployment

The unemployment rate edged down to 7.2 percent in September as the economy added 148,000 jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed in its monthly Employment Situation Report. The report, released weeks late as a result of the partial government shutdown, also showed revisions in job growth for July (down from 104,000 to 89,000) and August (up from 169,000 to 193,000).

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Fannie Downgrades Forecasts in Response to Consumer Sentiment

Overall, Fannie's outlook is "largely unchanged from the previous forecast," although "fiscal uncertainties associated with the federal government shutdown, the protracted negotiations to raise the debt ceiling, and the timing of the Federal Reserve's tapering of its asset purchase program, pose significant downside risks to economic activity in the current quarter," said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae. As such, the GSE is revising its forecasted GDP growth for this year from 2 percent to 1.9 percent.

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Initial Unemployment Claims Continue to Drop

Unemployment

Continuing the drop in first-time claims for unemployment insurance, initial filings fell 5,000 for the week ending September 21 to 305,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists had expected the number of claims to jump up to 330,000 from the 309,000 originally reported for the week ending September 14. The number of filings for that week was revised up to 310,000.

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Initial Jobless Claims Up Less Than Expected

Unemployment

Following a sharp drop in first-time claims for unemployment insurance a week earlier, initial filings rose 15,000 for the week ending September 14 to 309,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists had expected the number of claims to jump up 49,000 to 341,000, from the 292,000 originally reported for the week ending September 7. The number of filings for that week was revised up to 294,000.

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FOMC Votes No Change in Policy, Foresees Slower Growth

Fed

While noting improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions, the Federal Open Market Committee voted Wednesday to continue its policy of near-zero interest rates and its $85-billion-per-month bond-buying program. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's own economic projections suggested the economy might not grow this year as fast as it expected just three months ago.

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Consumer Sentiment Weakens in Preliminary September Report

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to a five-month low of 76.8 in September's preliminary report, spelling a potentially weak third quarter for consumption growth. The decline in overall sentiment was largely due to a drop in the Expectations Index, which measures consumer confidence for the next six months. That index fell to an eight-month low of 67.2. Meanwhile, the Current Conditions Index fell to 91.8.

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Initial Jobless Claims At 7 1/2-Year Low

Unemployment

First-time claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending September 7 plunged 31,000 to 292,000, the lowest level since March 2006, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists expected the number of claims to edge up to 330,000 from the 323,000 originally reported for the week ending August 31. The number of filings for that week was unchanged.

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Commentary: Truth… and Consequences

Friday's report on the August employment situation at the same time confounded analysts twice with a less than robust 169,000 month-month increase in payrolls and a staggering 58,000 reduction in the initial report on payrolls for July. While it may not be easy to reconcile the numbers in the employment situation report with themselves, it is even more difficult to reconcile them with other economic indicators.

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Analysts Question Taper Timeline Following Jobs Report

Though the national unemployment rate continued to fall in August, disappointing payroll numbers over the last several months have analysts wondering what the latest jobs report might mean for the Federal Reserve's plan to taper its monthly asset purchases. "As it stands now, [the six-month payroll] average isn't much higher than it was a year ago when the Fed felt it necessary to launch QE3," commented Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for the firm.

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