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Fueling fears about a federal default scenario, fragile debt-ceiling negotiations continued to splinter and stagnate this week, with Republicans refusing to budge on proposed tax increases and Democrats fighting to keep entitlements off the chopping block. If trends continue and the federal government defaults on its national debt, housing economists and mortgage rate analysts predict spikes in interest and mortgage rates, with steep and potentially catastrophic declines in homes sales.

A monthly update from Capital Economics holds that small upticks in home prices and sales reflect anomalous behavior in the market, thanks in part to a generous seasonal uplift. The report predicts continued falls in home sales.

Freddie Mac released a southerly primary mortgage market survey Thursday, revealing downward trends for mortgage rates across the board against a backdrop of anemic job growth and steadily increasing unemployment figures. According to the GSE, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dipped to 4.51 percent falling from 4.60 percent last week and staying just under the 4.57 percent average it struck last year. The data for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages yielded a fall from 3.75 percent last week to 3.65 percent this week.

Financial analysis firm Zelman & Associates released a survey signaling mixed results in the homebuilding industry, with new home orders grinding to a halt in May despite 20 percent year-over-year increases. The survey reported that builder sentiment gravitated towards stability, with an industry score topping off at 32.3 on a 0-100 scale, up from 29.6 in May. The Washington, D.C., builders' market remained top dog, while other regions rose only incrementally. Homebuilding starts hovered at 613,000.

Job growth slammed into a wall last month, with employment figures dropping and the number of jobless rising a grim indication that the housing markets may lose steam. According to Census data, the economy added only 18,000 new jobs in June, falling short of expectations that data would trump the 25,000 jobs brought on in May. Numbers for job loss in April and May also hit 9.2 percent and 9.1 percent, with economists saying that the market still needs a net gain of about 150,000 jobs.

According to a recent quarterly report released by the Mortgage Bankers Association, commercial and multifamily originations slowed to a rate 25 percent lower in the quarter this year than the last quarter in 2010. Titled the Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Quarterly Data Book, the report documented new signs of life in the economy, denoting $7.8 billion in profits for mortgage commitments, the highest in the first quarter in three years, reflective of a 60-percent increase from the first quarter last year.

The National Association of Realtors released a survey this week showing strong support for the belief that homeownership is a credible and worthy goal, with 72 percent of renters surveyed agreeing that owning a home remains a top priority. The 2011 National Housing Pulse Survey signaled a 72 percent thrust among renters who want to own a home, a marked improvement from 63 percent last year. The survey revealed a backlash against the proposed Qualified Residential Mortgage rule, which critics charge will raise down payments by 20 percent.

Last week Ginnie Mae released a report indicating that it guaranteed millions less mortgage-backed securities in May than April, posting over $25.4 billion.

HUD and the Treasury Department jointly released the June edition of the Obama administration├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔÇ×┬ós Housing Scorecard, offering mixed results as home sales crested on a slight uptick and an oversupply of foreclosed properties remained in place. According to the Scorecard, existing home sales jumped slightly over June, trending from 25,100 to 26,900. Mortgage rates elevated the new home sales by staying low, with a number of borrowers refinancing their mortgages to recoup losses and boost their savings.

The National Association of Realtors released statistics showing a northerly thrust for commercial markets, as job growth and brightening spots in the U.S. economy contributed to a growing level of confidence.