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Report: Housing Supply Shortage Likely to Persist Through Spring

It seems that the new year will not bring any relief to weary homebuyers who have been fighting repeated months of low inventory, high prices, and inflation. 

According to the latest iteration of the Market Pulse Report from HouseCanary, a real estate valuation brokerage whose team of economists regularly researches and reports industry trends, found that inventory levels dropped again In December to near record low levels. 

HouseCanary predicts that this negative movement will continue into the spring, projecting another double-digit home price increase by the end of 2022. 

"In 2021, the housing market drew plenty of headlines as a shrinking supply of homes available for rent and purchase caused properties to fly off the market at all-time high prices across the U.S.,” said Jeremy Sicklick, the Co-Founder and CEO of HouseCanary. “Toward the end of the year, the median listing and closed prices of properties in the U.S. began to deviate from each other, reflecting the significant leverage sellers often have in today's sparse market. As we kick off 2022 with a significant COVID-19 resurgence, we can expect the nationwide shortage of homes for sale to persist well into the spring, driving home prices even higher. Given that the U.S. remains in a low inventory environment with inflation rates at their steepest in 40 years, it's very likely this year will bring another double-digit increase in national home prices, with our models forecasting price growth in the 10-12% range." 

According to MLS data and public records compiled by HouseCanary, December saw 139,832 new listings across the country. This represents a 16.6% decrease over December 2020. 

When looking at the year as a whole, there were 3,218,779 net new listings placed on the market—that represents an 4.6% increase over the same period in 2020. When broken down into price ranges 17.2% of the some 3.2 million listings were listed under $200,000; 40.7% of listings were priced between $200,000–$400,000; 21.6% were between $400,000–$600,000; 13.8% were between $600,000–$1,000,000; and 6.7% were listed above $1 million. 

It should not be surprising that as home prices trend upward, listings of cheaper homes also drops off. Over the last year, home listings in the $0–$200,000 segment have dropped by 19.9% and homes in the $200,00–$400,000 decreased by 4.5% while homes in the other segments have increased. The percent of listed homes in the $400,000-$600,000 range rose by 27.4%, while homes in the $600,000-$1M and $1M+ rose by 41.2% and 39% respectively. 

In December, the median price of all single-family listings in the US was $373,619 and the median closed price was $383,395. On a year-over-year basis, the median price of all single-family listings is up 7.3% and the median price of closed listings is up 15.1%. However, the median home price has dropped 2.2% since November while the median closed price increased by 0.3%. 

Click here to view the full 130-page Market Pulse report including state-level breakdowns of housing data. 

About Author: Kyle G. Horst

Kyle Horst
Kyle G. Horst is a reporter for DS News and MReport. A graduate of the University of Texas at Tyler, he has worked for a number of daily, weekly, and monthly publications in South Dakota and Texas. With more than 10 years of experience in community journalism, he has won a number of state, national, and international awards for his writing and photography. He most recently worked as editor of Community Impact Newspaper covering a number of Dallas-Ft. Worth communities on a hyperlocal level. Contact Kyle G. at [email protected]
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