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Federal Reserve Puts Consumer Expectations Under the Microscope

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s June Survey of Consumer Expectations found that respondents were more optimistic regarding their financial situation and the labor market. Expectations on the U.S. unemployment rate, finding a job, and losing one’s job all improved. 

Consumers’ expectations of an increase in the average interest rate on savings accounts over the next year declined to their lowest level since May 2015, according to the survey. 

The report states that median home price change expectations were stable at 3% in June, which is the seventh-consecutive month at this level. 

CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index (HPI) revealed national home price rose 3.6% year-over-year in May 2019.

The report adds that CoreLogic is forecasting prices to increase 5.6% from May 2019 to May 2020. The May 2019 gains was lower than the 6.4% increase of May 2018, but a slight increase from March 2019’s 3.3%. 

According to the Federal Reserve Bank’s survey, median expected household income growth increased to 2.9% in June from 2.8% in May. Median household spending growth expectations decreased from 3.5% in May to June’s 3.3%.

The latest jobs report released last week  revealed the economy added 224,000 jobs in June, the most January. 

“After May's weaker jobs data, which was revised even lower today, the June report takes on new importance as a sign of whether the May data was a one-month blip or the start of a new weaker trend,” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com. “The 224,000 jobs added in June are a strong bounce back and will likely make the Fed less inclined toward rate cuts later this month, especially as the unemployment rate still hovers near 50-year lows at 3.7%.” 

The unemployment rate of 3.7% is marginally higher than what was reported in May, and the number of unemployed people came in a 6 million. Data also found the labor force participation rate came in at 62.9%, which is marginally higher than May’s 62.8%. 

About Author: Mike Albanese

A graduate of the University of Alabama, Mike Albanese has worked for news publications since 2011 in Texas and Colorado. He has built a portfolio of more than 1,000 articles, covering city government, police and crime, business, sports, and is experienced in crafting engaging features and enterprise pieces. He spent time as the sports editor for the "Pilot Point Post-Signal," and has covered the DFW Metroplex for several years. He has also assisted with sports coverage and editing duties with the "Dallas Morning News" and "Denton Record-Chronicle" over the past several years.
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