Tag Archives: Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group

“We forecast single-family purchase mortgage originations to be $1.32 trillion in 2023 and $1.41 trillion in 2024, representing downward revisions of $41 billion and $60 billion, respectively, relative to last month’s forecast,” the ESR said.

“Given the consistency of our survey results, we expect consumers' longstanding and highly favorable attitude toward homeownership as an investment option will continue to persist, even in the face of possible recession,” Fannie Mae authors concluded.

“There are select data available to support several alternative views of the path of the economy, though we maintain our view that a modest recession will begin in the second half of 2023,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae.

“Inflation has now been joined by financial stability concerns as threats to sustained growth,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae.

While unemployment and mortgage rates have both dropped recently, unsustainably high consumer spending and inflationary pressures are expected to push the economy into a recession during Q2 of 2023.

"In our view, the balance still suggests a modest recession, particularly if the Federal Reserve maintains its focus on labor market tightness,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae.

According to new research from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group (ESR), the housing market is expected to further cool as mortgage rates continue to rise and ...

The research arm of Fannie Mae has moved its recession prediction from the second to the first quarter of 2023. Here are insights from Chief Economist Doug Duncan.

“Tightening financial conditions are slowing economic activity, and consumers are drawing down savings and increasingly relying on credit cards as they seek to maintain current levels of consumption,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan.

Due to a litany of factors, Fannie Mae cut their predictions for origination activity, total sales, and GDP for 2022 and 2023.