Tag Archives: Home Prices

Capital Economics is ready to acknowledge that rising mortgage rates may provide more drag than the firm's analysts first thought.

According to RE/MAX's National Housing Report for September, closed transactions fell 18.5 percent month-over-month, following the trend that usually occurs as summer passes into autumn. Year-over-year, sales increased 10.7 percent, making September the 27th consecutive month in which sales rose on an annual basis. The company also reported a slowdown in the rate of inventory decline. Compared to September 2012, inventories were down 13.4 percent, bringing the month supply to 5.0 at the current sales pace.

The recent fast-paced home price appreciation across the country led some markets to the brink of a bubble, but deceleration over the summer months has Zillow analysts breathing a sigh of relief as the bubble threat deflates. Home value appreciation has declined steadily for three months, according to Zillow, and half of the nation's 20 largest metros experienced negative appreciation in September. "Far from being a negative sign, we're relieved to see more noticeable signs of cooling in the market," said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow.

Overall, Fannie's outlook is "largely unchanged from the previous forecast," although "fiscal uncertainties associated with the federal government shutdown, the protracted negotiations to raise the debt ceiling, and the timing of the Federal Reserve's tapering of its asset purchase program, pose significant downside risks to economic activity in the current quarter," said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae. As such, the GSE is revising its forecasted GDP growth for this year from 2 percent to 1.9 percent.

The once-volatile housing market is making strides toward equilibrium, according to a new report from Realtor.com.

On a monthly basis, home prices rose 0.6 percent in August, according to FNC's Residential Price index (RPI), a measure of price changes in the country's 100 large metropolitan areas. On a yearly basis, the increase is 5.3 percent. The monthly gain in August was smaller than the gains accrued over the two previous months--a sign that the recovery remains uneven across the nation, FNC says. With seasonal trends usually putting a drag on housing measures, the deceleration can be expected to go on.

A recent Trulia study suggests those looking to live comfortably in their homes should consider moving to Ohio, Indiana, South Carolina, or Alabama, where incomes are lower, but housing costs are even lower.

The frenzy that has characterized the 2013 housing market has officially come to a close, Redfin says in its latest Real-Time Price Tracker. The tech-powered brokerage reported a seasonal drop in home sales, prices, and inventory in September, though the recovery's strength is still evident in year-over-year gains. Current trends point to continued declines in the months ahead--an expected turn as demand from homebuyers starts to slow down in fall and winter.

A new index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and First American suggests that about one in seven housing markets have returned to or surpassed their pre-recessionary levels of activity. According to the association, the index registered a score of 0.85 nationwide, indicating that the national housing market is running at 85 percent of normal activity. Of the nearly 350 metro markets examined, 52 have reported levels of activity at least equal to those before the recession hit.

According to Lender Processing Services' data, the monthly prepayment rate--historically a good indicator of refinance activity--has dipped more than 30 percent in the months since May, with mortgage interest rates climbing nearly 100 basis points in that same time. As a result of those shifts, the percentage of borrowers in loans with interest rates high enough for refinancing to make sense has dropped significantly, says Herb Blecher, SVP for the technology and analytics firm.