Tag Archives: Recession

While the “if” and “when” of a recession remain uncertain, the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group does forecast one to occur, expected to begin in the first half of 2024—despite increased chances of a “soft landing.”

Not since spring of 2002 have fixed-rate mortgages been as high as they were reported this week, and when combined with mortgage app volume sliding for the fourth straight week, affordability headwinds continue to impact housing demand.

According to Odeta Kushi, First American's Deputy Chief Economist, there has never been an official or general agreement on what constitutes a housing recession.

A new poll by Fannie Mae has found that 73% of respondents believe the U.S. economy is on the “wrong track,” with a vast majority of lenders feeling the economy is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to enter a recession in the next two years.

“Though mortgage rates are substantially higher than they have been on average over the past decade, from an historic perspective rates are about average,” Freddie Mac said.

“There are select data available to support several alternative views of the path of the economy, though we maintain our view that a modest recession will begin in the second half of 2023,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae.

“Inflation has now been joined by financial stability concerns as threats to sustained growth,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae.

While unemployment and mortgage rates have both dropped recently, unsustainably high consumer spending and inflationary pressures are expected to push the economy into a recession during Q2 of 2023.

"In our view, the balance still suggests a modest recession, particularly if the Federal Reserve maintains its focus on labor market tightness,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae.

According to a new LendingTree study, a combination of relatively high rates and weak homebuyer demand will likely cause a gradual decline in prices nationwide in 2023. Click to see what else experts predict this year.