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Author Archives: Mark Lieberman

Mark Lieberman is the former Senior Economist at Fox Business Network. He is now Managing Director and Senior Economist at Economics Analytics Research. He can be heard each Friday on The Morning Briefing on POTUS on Sirius-XM Radio 124.

Volatile First-Time Jobless Claims Jump Back Up

Unemployment

First-time claims for unemployment insurance jumped 38,000 to 368,000 for the week ending January 26, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists expected a smaller increase to 350,000 from the prior week's 330,000 initial claims. The weekly jump in initial claims was the first in three weeks. It reflected, in part, a drop in the seasonal adjustment factor the Labor Department applies to the raw data, which includes holiday workers whose jobs were eliminated.

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FOMC to Continue Low Rates Efforts, Reinvestment Program

Fed

With a nod to the report the nation's economy had contracted in the fourth quarter, the Federal Open Market Committee ("FOMC") voted Wednesday to continue its program of purchasing $40 million a month of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and to maintain the target Fed Funds rate at 0 to 0.25 percent. The FOMC vote was 11-1 with only Kansas City Fed President Esther George (in her first meeting as a voting member of the committee) voting "no."

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GDP Shows First Post-Recession Decline in Q4

For the first time since the end of the Great Recession, real gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the fourth quarter of 2012, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. According to the BEA, GDP fell 0.1 percent in Q4, performing even worse than economists had expected. The biggest hits to fourth quarter GDP came from a sharp drop in government spending, which fell 6.6 percent from the third quarter. Private investment fell 0.6 percent, primarily due to inventory investments and a fall-off in exports.

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Homeownership Rate Remains Down in Q4

The number of households owning homes rose to 75,209,000 in the fourth quarter, up from 75,076,000 in the third but down from 75,315,000 a year ago, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday. At the same time, the nation's homeownership rate (seasonally adjusted) dipped to 65.4 percent in the fourth quarter from 65.5 percent in the third quarter. The stagnant homeownership rate combined with a decline in the number of units held off the market suggests opportunities for home sales.

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Case-Shiller Price Indices See Big Yearly Gains in November

Despite seeing a month-over-month drop, the 10- and 20-city Case-Shiller Home Price Indices registered their strongest year-over-year improvement in two and a half years, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday. On an annual basis, the 10-city index was up 4.5 percent, and the 20-city index rose 5.5 percent. It was the strongest yearly gain in the 10-city index since June 2010 and in the 20-city index since May 2010. Year-over-year, prices were up in 19 of the 20 cities surveyed.

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December Sees Sharp Drop in New Home Sales

New home sales fell 7.3 percent in December to 369,000, the sharpest monthly drop in almost two years, the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported Friday. The monthly drop in sales was the largest since February 2011. Nonetheless, December 2012 sales were up 8.8 percent over December 2011. Sales for September, October, and November were revised higher, with the November sales pace reported as 398,000, up from the originally reported 377,000.

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First-Time Jobless Claims Drop to Another 5-Year Low

Unemployment

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell to another five-year low for the week ending January 19, dropping 5,000 to 330,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists expected claims to increase to 360,000 from the prior week. The previous week's report was unchanged at 365,000, which had been the lowest level since January 2008.

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