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MBA Revises Economic Forecast Down, Originations Up

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) revised its economic forecast down and its mortgage originations and mortgage rate forecasts up in its most recent outlook released Thursday. Having previously announced a 2.4 percent economic growth forecast for the second half of this year, MBA now believes economic growth will be closer to 2.2 percent. At the same time, the association's forecast for originations has risen to about $606 billion, an improvement over the original prediction of $527 billion.

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First-Time Unemployment Claims Creep Up

Unemployment

The Department of Labor reported Thursday that advance initial unemployment figures for the week ending July 20 totaled 343,000, an increase of 7,000 over the previous week's revised tally. The four-week moving average for first-time claims was 345,250, a decline of 1,250 from the prior week.

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Mortgage Rates Fall for Second Straight Week

Mortgage rates backed down for the second consecutive week, according to reports from Freddie Mac and Bankrate.com. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed-rate average at 4.31 percent (0.8 point) for the week ending July 25, down from last week's 4.37 percent. Meanwhile, Bankrate's weekly national survey showed the 30-year fixed falling to 4.54 percent and the 15-year fixed dropping to 3.61 percent. The downward trend may not last, however.

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More Older Americans Submitting Online Mortgage Applications

A growing number of older Americans are applying for mortgage loans online, according to a recent survey from Mortgage Marvel. Thirty-five percent of mortgage applicants are past the age of 50, according to the survey of more than 650,000 applications submitted to more than 1,100 lenders in 2012. "[P]lenty of older Americans are computer savvy and very willing to pursue major transactions, such as mortgage applications, on the Internet," said Mortgage Marvel COO Rick Allen.

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Pace of New Home Sales Climbs to Five-Year High

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales welled 8.3 percent in June to 497,000, according to a report from the Census Bureau and HUD. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected June sales to increase to 484,000 from May's originally reported 476,000. The median price of a new home fell 5.0 percent in June to $249,700, the third time the median price has dropped in the last four months. At the same time, May's median price was revised down to $262,800 from the originally reported $263,900.

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Investor Activity Down as Current Homeowners Step Up

Among three buyer types--current homeowner, first-time homebuyer, and investor--current homeowners were the only group to see activity rise in June, according to data from the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking survey. As rising home prices discourage investment activity, HousePulse found home purchases from investors slipped to 19.7 percent, down significantly from 23.1 percent from February. June was the fourth straight month to see investor traffic decline.

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