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Tag Archives: FBR Capital Markets

July Originations Pick Up, but Will It Last?

Based on data from Bloomberg, investment bank FBR Capital Markets estimates issuance of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) last month came to approximately $90 billion, marking a "significant improvement" from June and May. However, year-to-date originations are at approximately $633 billion, and with the historically stronger summer months done, FBR expects "the strong pace set in July could slow materially in August, September, and beyond."

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June Originations Rise Modestly, Still Look Weak

Activity in the secondary mortgage market picked up modestly in June, but FBR Capital Markets warns lenders against celebrating just yet. Based on the total issuance of $211 billion in the second quarter, the investment firm estimates total originations were $264 billion for the quarter, just above the $263 billion estimate.

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Forecasters Revise Expectations on Disappointing May Production

In a letter to clients, analysts at investment banking services firm FBR Capital Markets said they are lowering their 2014 origination outlook to $989 billion from an earlier forecast of nearly $1.1 trillion. "After an April where volumes had increased for the first time in a year, we had grown modestly more optimistic," the firm said. "Now, we believe May results could prove to be a leading indicator of what is shaping up to be the weakest ... year in recent memory."

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Analysts Revise Forecasts on Weak MBS Issuance

Citing weak Q1 MBS issuance data, researchers for investment bank FBR Capital Markets anticipate a weak first quarter, with issuances likely totaling near $200 billion. While noting that issuances are not the same as origination figures, FBR nevertheless dialed back its first-quarter origination projections to $244 billion, bringing its full-year forecast to $1.2 trillion from $1.3 trillion previously.

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2013 Originations Estimated at $1.8T, Big Players Give Up More Ground

For the entire year, industry numbers point to a total of $1.8 trillion in originations, well above what many analysts projected at the opening of the year. Given the current trend of declining mortgage rates and the Federal Housing Finance Agency's expected push to open credit availability at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, FBR Capital Markets says we might see originations in 2014 push to $1.3 trillion or higher, depending on how the next few months play out.

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Will Fourth-Quarter Earnings Meet Expectations?

According to a market report from FBR Capital Markets, bank stocks managed to outperform compared to many others. FBR says the improvement stemmed from rising investor expectations in response to interest rates moving higher and the economy showing signs of improvement. "However," FBR says, "we believe most banks will not be able to live up to these expectations as loan growth remains weak, pressures on margins still exist, and mortgage banking results should remain relatively poor."

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Uncertainty to Permeate New Year Despite Some Regulatory Clarity

The new year will bring some clarity to the housing market and likely some loosening of credit, though an air of mystery does still surround some aspects of the industry, according to FBR's outlook for 2014. With Mel Watt, a former Democratic senator from North Carolina, taking the helm at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and three openings at the Federal Reserve, some uncertainty persists despite some clarity surrounding Qualified Mortgages (QM) and other regulations in the housing industry.

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Republicans Block Watt Nomination for FHFA Head

Senate Republicans blocked on Thursday a vote on the nomination of Rep. Mel Watt (D-North Carolina) to head up the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Watt's nomination was stopped in a 56-42 vote to end the debate over his confirmation. Sixty votes were needed to invoke cloture and move forward. The agency has been led since 2009 by acting director Edward DeMarco, who has attracted criticism from Democrats and consumer advocates who say he hasn't gone far enough to help distressed homeowners.

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Analysts: Q3 Mortgage Banking Numbers in Line with Expectations

Now that most of the nation's biggest mortgage players have put out their earnings numbers for the third quarter, investment bank FBR Capital Markets says its mortgage banking forecasts--$1.6 billion for 2013 originations followed by $1.4 billion in 2014--are still well within reach. Examining the reports, FBR says the third quarter was a case of "more of the same, with anemic loan growth ... weak mortgage banking, and lack of top-line expansion as the more notable items."

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